10 Predictions for 2026 + Timberland’s No Good Very Bad Boot

Today on The Rock Fight Colin and Producer Dave help break down Eoin's ten predictions for the outdoor industry in 2026! From tariffs and retail shakeups to REI’s membership future, used gear going mainstream, peak trail running culture, and AI becoming your next gear buddy.

Then for The Parting Shot presented by Garage Grown Gear, Colin calls out Timberland’s latest boot, using it as a case study in what happens when legacy brands lose the plot on product quality, relevance, and execution.

What do you think of our predictions? Weigh in with your opinion and make your own outdoor industry 2026 prediction by clicking here!

Thanks for listening! The Rock Fight is a production of Rock Fight, LLC.

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Episode Transcript:

Colin True

00:00:01.040 - 00:00:54.860

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Chris DeMakes

00:00:56.220 - 00:01:03.580

Rock flight. Rock Flight. Rock Flight. Rock Flight. Rock Flight. Rock Flight.

Colin True

00:01:04.840 - 00:01:23.240

Welcome to the Rock Fight where we speak our truth, slay sacred cows and sometimes agree to disagree. This is an outdoor podcast that aims for the head. I'm Colin True and joining me today, you know them as Zinn's biggest outdoor media influencers.

After Gear Junkie, of course, it's Owen Comerford and producer Dave. What's up guys?

Eoin Comerford

00:01:23.480 - 00:01:29.960

Hello. Yes, I am all nicotined up right as we speak.

Colin True

00:01:31.550 - 00:01:34.470

You can tell by my voice I'm just still straight smoking darts. I'm not even.

Producer Dave

00:01:34.470 - 00:01:42.430

Yeah, you do. You sound like you're just down to pack a camel reds and they're on your way to the second. What are your tonsils having their own Rock Fight.

Colin True

00:01:42.670 - 00:01:57.630

I think, you know, it's the holiday. Holiday. Illness has descended on the true household.

But, but I guess, you know, for our listeners who maybe didn't notice, Zen, big outdoor sponsor now, guys, I don't know if it was in the Gear Junkie newsletter, you know, the healthiest of choices.

Eoin Comerford

00:01:57.950 - 00:02:03.810

Well, you know, it's not hurting your lungs so, you know, it's, it's all good.

Colin True

00:02:04.450 - 00:02:16.649

I, I got three texts within about five minutes of that newsletter coming out going, do you see Zinn sponsoring gear Junkies newsletter? Really quite a line. But hey, good for them for, you know, trying to tap into an audience.

Producer Dave

00:02:16.649 - 00:02:20.850

The deal. Yeah, sharpens the mind, focuses the attention.

Colin True

00:02:22.050 - 00:02:25.090

Well, clearly I could move over to Zinn as.

Producer Dave

00:02:25.410 - 00:02:26.050

Maybe you should.

Colin True

00:02:26.050 - 00:02:34.270

But maybe you should. Well, I'm going to try to talk less today. I think that's why we're that's why we settled on the format, I think, because we're doing Owen's predict.

Because today we're kicking off 2026.

Producer Dave

00:02:34.270 - 00:02:35.070

Good luck with that.

Colin True

00:02:35.630 - 00:03:28.570

By making. No kidding. By making predictions. Or more specifically, our outdoor industry insider.

Owen has made predictions and we're going to break them down and talk about them. We're recording this a little early, so no programming reminders, but news from the front.

Rock Fight's official newsletter will make its triumphant return this week as we'll be sending out a survey to you, all of our listeners to weigh in on today's predictions and whether or not you agree with the consigliere on what he thinks will happen in 20. So if you're not signed up, head right now to Rockfight Co. Click join the mailing list and you'll get the survey delivered right to your inbox.

Let's just get into it, guys. So a couple weeks ago, owen, you put 10 predictions on LinkedIn. I have those 10 predictions.

I'm going to read each one and then you're going to tell us why you're making it. And Dave and I are going to weigh in whether we agree, disagree, maybe we make fun of it, whatever. You know, kind of typical stuff, right?

Eoin Comerford

00:03:28.730 - 00:03:29.130

Yeah.

Colin True

00:03:29.130 - 00:03:30.410

And does that sound good?

Eoin Comerford

00:03:30.970 - 00:03:31.370

Awesome.

Colin True

00:03:31.770 - 00:03:52.250

All right, prediction number one, outdoor brands get off to a slow start in 2026.

So you wrote, outdoor brands will see flat to negative comps for the first half thanks to more conservative preseason orders from retailers combined with decreased demand due to new price increases and overall consumer financial stress. Man, we're just getting sexy right off the right from the jump.

Eoin Comerford

00:03:53.050 - 00:03:59.130

Oh yeah, just sunshine and happiness from Comerford as per usual.

Colin True

00:03:59.210 - 00:04:00.810

Hope you enjoyed the holidays, folks.

Producer Dave

00:04:02.710 - 00:04:04.950

But enjoy the deep slumber next.

Eoin Comerford

00:04:05.430 - 00:04:25.110

Yeah, yeah, and I also, by the way, I only could think about the first half of the year because who the hell knows. I mean, there's never been a tougher time to forecast anything given the sort of the back and forth nature of policy in this country.

Producer Dave

00:04:26.710 - 00:04:33.150

But yeah, I like how you assume that there's a policy. That's fantastic. You're such an optimist.

Colin True

00:04:33.310 - 00:04:35.950

I am traded policy for rhetoric.

Eoin Comerford

00:04:38.110 - 00:05:45.910

So I guess policy by tweet or whatever it is.

So first of all, what I would say is the pre seasons and I have heard this from multiple brands, preseasons being down kind of in the 5 to 10% or more range and you have to throw your mind back to June, July when those preseasons were being ordered. We were in the middle of tariff turmoil. So a lot of retail Retailers, we're like, I don't know what we're going to order. Okay.

We just know that it's going to be less. So I'm pretty confident that the preseasons are down for most brands.

Obviously there are some that are hotter than others, but a lot of the ones I'm talking to, that's kind of what they're seeing.

And then on the price increase side, I think we've talked about it quite a bit here, but most price increases that I'm hearing actually haven't happened yet, but they are happening for spring. And I just don't think that is going to be helpful from a demand perspective.

It might help some of the top line profits, but certainly it's going to bring down unit volume and I would say probably more than enough to offset the price increase. So overall it looks a little bit rough.

Colin True

00:05:46.710 - 00:06:02.710

Last year you predicted a comeback year. Obviously we know what happened. I think the first half prediction is probably the right call here because there's a little.

And we'll get into it with your second prediction, but a little stability, maybe some changes and second half of the year, who knows? It could be a comeback.

Eoin Comerford

00:06:02.980 - 00:06:10.100

Would be a comeback, things could rip up. Or we could have an AI bubble and the stock market crashes. Who the hell knows?

Colin True

00:06:10.100 - 00:06:12.100

Quite frankly, trail running has to save.

Producer Dave

00:06:12.100 - 00:06:28.500

Us from the AI bubble. Can you distance yourself? Yeah, I think, Owen, I think your wrap up here is headwinds, right? Headwinds.

We are facing unmitigated and unforeseen headwinds regardless of what they're going to be.

Colin True

00:06:30.170 - 00:06:39.050

Yeah, I mean, I guess that's usually the way it goes, right? I mean, the headwinds are there, they've been there. We know what we know. Hopefully now we know what they are.

Last year we didn't know what was actually gonna come. So I guess we'll see how it goes. But.

Producer Dave

00:06:39.210 - 00:07:24.790

Well, let me throw a counter, like an optimistic view. All of these things are gonna come to pass. Every worst case scenario you laid out will happen.

And what we see when the economy tanks, the bubble bursts, the, you know, the recessionary pressures hit is that two forms of kind of markets tend to those better. One is luxury goods and the other is youth items. Right. And they tend not to pull back their spending in the same way.

And from what I've seen of outdoor, half of them are trying to be luxury brands and the other half want to be a teen, you know, fad item. So maybe we will get through this if outdoor continues to kind of look in that kind of Double headed way.

Colin True

00:07:25.030 - 00:07:54.130

Well, we know some stability would go a long way towards everything happening in a more favorable direction. Which leads us to number two prediction. Number two, tariffs see a rollback. So you're coming in hot on your second prediction here. Right.

So faced with widespread consumer backlash to increasing prices and legal setbacks from the Supreme Court, the Trump administration rolls back or reconstitutes tariffs on some major categories like apparel and footwear. This might be a little optimistic. What are you thinking here, Owen?

Eoin Comerford

00:07:55.010 - 00:08:30.160

So a couple of things. One of the data points here is that actually Wall street firms are buying rights to tariff refund claims right now from companies.

They're buying them for whatever it is, 20, 30 cents on the dollar, but they're still like there's a market in that.

And actually one of the Wall street firms that is talking about this is Cantor Fitzgerald, which just happens to be the firm that used to be run by Howard Ludnick, who is our Secretary of Commerce. So one would think that they're buying.

Colin True

00:08:30.160 - 00:08:37.040

The rights to tariff refund claims. They're basically, they're seeing upside and like financial upside based off of a potential rollback.

Eoin Comerford

00:08:37.040 - 00:08:37.280

Is that.

Colin True

00:08:37.280 - 00:08:38.360

I don't know. Explain that.

Eoin Comerford

00:08:40.200 - 00:09:18.180

Let's say that the Supreme Court says that the Trump administration didn't have rights to do these very broad based tariffs. That means that everybody who paid these increased tariffs over this last year should get a refund. Right. And so they've already paid.

So let's say you're a company that's paid, you know, an extra $10 million in tariffs and now you've got that refund coming. You could sell that potential refund before it obviously is in stone for 20 cents on the dollar, 30 cents on the dollar to one of these firms. Yeah.

So it's an interesting.

Producer Dave

00:09:19.060 - 00:09:24.020

I don't know what you're worried about. I mean, have you read or seen the Big Short?

Colin True

00:09:24.260 - 00:09:25.780

I was just thinking of the Big Short.

Producer Dave

00:09:26.660 - 00:09:33.280

Is there anything about this that would lead you to believe that the market is unstable or possib? I don't know.

Colin True

00:09:34.960 - 00:09:45.600

Well, but I mean this is an interesting data point, cuz otherwise we're relying on like the Trump administration coming to its senses and rolling them back. Right. Which we know not likely. But you're saying there are markers that.

Producer Dave

00:09:45.600 - 00:09:50.560

Are showing us what senses are you talking about? Are you talking about empathy or are you talking about predatory instinct?

Colin True

00:09:50.800 - 00:09:52.240

I'll take either one, Dave.

Eoin Comerford

00:09:54.160 - 00:11:23.570

So the Wall street part of it, buying the refunds, that is more of a marker or more of an indicator of. Of The Supreme Court basically saying, no, you can't do this.

And actually in the early arguments that they heard over the last, I think it was a couple months ago, it did sound like the justices were a little bit questioning of whether this right was in place. But the other piece actually is Trump has rolled back tariffs.

So it was 200 different grocery items in mid November, mainly products that, that are, that we don't produce much of in this country, like coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, that kind of stuff. Right. But it was to address inflation in food prices, which obviously is a big issue.

But, you know, one could argue that if inflationary pressures continue to be an issue going into the midterms and Republicans want to get some relief there, you could talk to certainly apparel. We don't make a lot of apparel in this country, FYI.

And so that would be a way to potentially help impact some of these inflationary, inflationary areas. Because obviously apparel, it's not to the level of groceries, but it is a pretty big expenditure as well. So that's a possibility.

Footwear would be a possibility. I doubt they'd get into camping equipment and tents and that kind of stuff. That's just too far down the list to make the grade.

But wider apparel, potentially.

Producer Dave

00:11:23.570 - 00:11:43.240

Well, I don't think they're going to roll back the tariffs on footwear and apparel. Now. They might change the classification of footwear and apparel to like tropical fruit. Right.

And then if it's under tropical fruit, then we know they're all not made in the United States. So I think then therefore we could see some relief.

Colin True

00:11:43.720 - 00:11:45.160

Inedible food item.

Eoin Comerford

00:11:45.320 - 00:11:48.200

Right, Right, Gotcha.

Colin True

00:11:49.240 - 00:12:12.960

All right, prediction number three, Gear as a service subscription model is launched. The high cost of outdoor gear like mountain bikes, kayaks and skis stands in the way of outdoor activity adoption by younger enthusiasts.

To capture their demand, a major retailer or brand will launch a subscription model offering access to the latest high end gear for a monthly fee. Wow, that's a pretty big. You think this is going to happen?

Eoin Comerford

00:12:13.280 - 00:14:16.200

Well, so here's where I came to this one. I was thinking through, and we get into this a little bit later, I was thinking through, how is REI going to make their membership stickier? Right.

And probably one of the most sticky ways could be with something like this, a subscription service where you pay, whatever it is, 100 bucks a month and you can get a great mountain bike, great set of skis, a kayak, whatever, use it for the weekend, bring it back, get something else for the next weekend, et cetera, super sticky. It would get all sorts of traffic in the stores, et cetera. So that got me thinking about it.

So I said, well, okay, I'm going to make the prediction maybe a little bit wider here and made it sort of broader.

The interesting thing on this one was this, of all the predictions on LinkedIn, this is the one that got the most comments and they were on both sides. So there were a few comments that said this will never happen. Shipping and handling, cost of the gear, yada yada. That doesn't make any sense.

Then the other side was this is already happening. There's this company called the Sweet Spot that is doing kind of this sort of thing with bikes with leases.

So I guess my answer to that is that yes, shipping and handling would make this a nightmare if you're shipping kayaks back and forth every week. So this will be a brick and mortar solution.

So it would either be like an REI or somebody like that that has a brick and mortar location or potentially on the bike side like a Trek, they've got over 100 plus locations.

So I mean, if you can imagine, like, you know, one week I'm going to go in and get a cool road bike, the next week I'm going to get this kick ass E mountain bike, then I'm going to go get a gravel bike, you know, and I could just do all these things for whatever it is, 100 bucks a month. So that would be my prediction. It's something more like that.

But you know, I think for an REI what they would do is they would jack up the regular price. So you know, like the non member price is like 250 bucks a month, let's say.

But if you're a member, you're going to get it for, you know, whatever, 150 bucks a month.

Producer Dave

00:14:16.200 - 00:14:30.340

So we're taking the model that's been around forever of renting equipment at a place you want to use the equipment like a bike rental or a surfboard rental or a ski rental. Right. Like that's the new model in the.

Eoin Comerford

00:14:30.340 - 00:14:45.620

Urban area, except that it's a subscription. So you're paying every month, right.

And then you're going back and forth with, you're having your equipment, you're just changing it out as you change your activity or whatever you want to do.

Producer Dave

00:14:46.020 - 00:15:04.320

I do like this. I don't know if it's maybe this year, maybe we're still a few years from seeing it ramp itself up.

But I also figured out that, that if you do have a Gira subscription service for ultralight, you could probably call that A gas light. And that probably fits this model even better.

Eoin Comerford

00:15:06.800 - 00:15:08.960

Yes, you could. Thank you, Dave.

Colin True

00:15:11.520 - 00:15:25.410

I think there's probably a way here.

I guess I need to see the spreadsheet of how this becomes profitable because I just got to think the brands are, it's going to become at some point a logistical nightmare or the retailers even. Right. But versus, like, you know, or we could just really work on getting people to buy these things.

Producer Dave

00:15:25.410 - 00:15:33.490

Call an AI. AI will fix all of that. How? I don't know, but it will. Haven't you heard Sam Altman?

Eoin Comerford

00:15:35.569 - 00:16:28.490

But no, but to Dave's point, I mean, the things that we're talking about, bikes, skis, kayaks, they all get rented out today all the time. And it's actually a really great model.

I mean, you get to, I mean, typically when you're renting, renting that stuff out halfway through the first season, you've covered the cost of the goods, right? Sure. And then you get to rent them for usually at least two seasons and then you get to sell them as used for obviously a discount.

But still it's a good model. Now again, I think where this becomes exciting for a retail location is that person is probably coming into your store once a month now.

So they're coming in, not only are they going to be renting, they're coming in and swapping out their bike for a kayak. But while they're there picking up a pfd, they're picking up, you know, a new pair of, you know, cycling bibs.

Producer Dave

00:16:28.490 - 00:16:31.050

Or whatever, new pair of tropical fruit.

Colin True

00:16:31.930 - 00:17:22.819

I think it's almost like this is a, a brand or marketing thing more than anything else. Right. Because if it's sort of, hey, you're trying to tell. Because I'm looking at from the perspective like, why would I do this? And like.

And I, and I wouldn't do this. Right. I'm just going to go buy a new bike or a kayak or whatever because I know I'm going to use it or I'm not going to use it or whatever it is.

So if it's a, who's the person you want to attract to this and then how do you message to get them in the store?

And that's probably the biggest challenge here because we know that, that advertising not really the strong suit of most folks in the outdoor industry. So how is it. Because it makes sense. You're right. I'm sure there is an audience to capture here, especially in specific locations.

It's how do you bring them in to use it?

And listen, maybe there's retailers out there already who are like commenting on your LinkedIn thread or screaming at the radio right now saying we're already doing this and it works great. In that case, please email us myrockflightmail.com, i'd love to hear some success stories here.

Producer Dave

00:17:22.819 - 00:17:35.019

I was going to throw in an old man Colin comment that I think this is also generational. You just not used to subscription services in the same way I don't like to share. Right, right.

Colin True

00:17:35.019 - 00:17:38.019

I want my own. Keep your hands off of my shit.

Producer Dave

00:17:38.339 - 00:17:55.420

But this, that's why I think this is not a 2026 story as much as it. It's the next. It's the next wave story. Right. And we're totally going to see that.

Like they're going to grow up into this model and never even bat an eye that it's somehow unique or different or shouldn't exist.

Colin True

00:17:55.500 - 00:18:20.870

All right, next prediction number four. PFAS rainwear gray market emerges.

Untrustful of the new C0DWR technologies enthusiasts will stock up on tried and true pfas based rainwear pre2025, placing performance concerns ahead of environmental impact. So you think that all the core are going to be like fuck this, I'm going to go load up on PFAs.

Eoin Comerford

00:18:21.990 - 00:19:07.930

Well, a portion of them are. I really do.

I mean if you spend any time in the deep darkest recesses of reddish, there's quite a bit of chatter about this C0 stuff isn't really what we're used to here.

And my favorite thing is some of the Redditors that are demanding that it no longer be called dwr, it should now be called NDWR for non durable water repellency because it basically wears out after a season. So yeah, that's, you know, is it going to be everybody?

No, but I think there's going to be people who are going to be really a either hanging on to their DWR, to their old, you know, PFAS stuff or actively looking for it, you know, on gear trade and other places.

Colin True

00:19:07.930 - 00:19:30.000

Yeah, my gut when I read this one, I only kind of half read your list, was sort of like now what are you talking about?

Nobody's going to care enough about this then realizing that actually no, no, no, no, we're talking about the core, like the people who actually really do value this stuff, of which there is not that large of an audience. But the ones who do do and already are probably mostly our age. And we know that we're all mostly PFAS at this point anyway.

And don't care about a little bit more entering their body.

Eoin Comerford

00:19:30.240 - 00:19:30.640

Sure.

Colin True

00:19:31.199 - 00:19:35.120

Like why not go buy two or three more shells and you're good for the rest of your life probably.

Eoin Comerford

00:19:35.280 - 00:19:35.840

That's right.

Producer Dave

00:19:36.320 - 00:19:48.410

That's right. I thought gray market was. You were referring to the color of water that bounces off a PFAS garment. That was.

I see where you're going with this sewer play. Yeah, right, right.

Colin True

00:19:48.410 - 00:20:03.050

Is that what's going on? I would love to see that. I want to hear from some folks. Myrockfightmail.com Are you loading up on the old good stuff, the unregulated PFAs?

Producer Dave

00:20:03.930 - 00:20:15.360

You've got a case of light bulbs in your garage. You've got your PFAS garments. That's right. And a bunch of. What is it? Food. Color Red. Number five. Going down on the ship with that one.

Eoin Comerford

00:20:15.760 - 00:20:23.520

Yeah. And lots of GMO stuff everywhere. We're just eating all that stuff. Yeah.

Producer Dave

00:20:24.560 - 00:20:25.240

Good. All right.

Colin True

00:20:25.240 - 00:20:44.560

Prediction number five, Sporting Goods announces closure of over 10% of Foot Locker locations. Despite changes to assortment and merchandising.

Over 10% of Foot Locker locations or 234 plus stores won't have the projected return on investment needed to bring the stores up to Dick's new standard. That's a pretty big number.

Eoin Comerford

00:20:44.780 - 00:21:26.870

Yeah. 200 plus stores. Really where this came from is.

And people, we might remember when we talked about this on the pod, but they announced this big write down. Right. 500 to $700 million write down that they were taking. And as they talked about it, the second biggest reason they said was store closures.

And just kind of doing the math in terms of what their average lease looks like, lease projections, et cetera. If we're talking about 100 to 200 million of that 500 to 750, that would cover probably at least 200 stores, if not three or 400 stores.

So yeah, I think it's going to be a chunk.

Producer Dave

00:21:27.910 - 00:21:49.650

I'm with you. I'd even go on the higher side of that if I was going to. I'd say 10% might be the floor, frankly. And there's just, just. There's so many, so many.

So much footprint in there that can't be performing at a level that they needed to. And I just think there's plenty of malls that haven't been gutted yet. I think they can absolutely find some.

Eoin Comerford

00:21:49.730 - 00:22:13.370

I mean there's a lot of stores in B and C class malls that. Yeah, right. And the thing about these smaller footprint stores as well is you just have a minimum staffing level.

And so the operating costs aren't really cheaper that much in a C class mall versus a B or an A class mall. But your sales are far, far less. That ROI just isn't there.

Colin True

00:22:14.330 - 00:23:11.420

I want to talk about Foot Locker for a second because I think nobody really wrote in about this when we talked about them on the pod. But it's not really a retailer that comes up a lot in outdoor industry conversations.

And I think it probably should even more so now given the Dick's acquisition. You know, how many outdoor footwear brands do you guys think have like a legit footwear footlocker strategy either pre or post acquisition?

I mean, if I put like the over under at 12 and a half, would you say that's low or high? I mean, I think there's probably a lot of footwear brands who don't. Yeah, high, right.

So I did look at the Just Foot Locker's website and just did, you know, just searching. So this is, you know, you can debate the method, but this is what I found.

So if you look at outdoor brands that are currently on Footlocker.com, you have on Timberland, Adidas, Merrell, Ugg, Crocs, Nike, not acg, just Nike, Birkenstock and Hoka. So they're currently selling. I mean, those are some pretty big players that we talk about frequently on this podcast.

Eoin Comerford

00:23:11.740 - 00:23:14.700

But you could argue whether they're a lot of those are outdoor brands or not.

Colin True

00:23:15.500 - 00:23:17.180

You could. But I mean, we, you know, we.

Producer Dave

00:23:17.180 - 00:23:22.620

Talk about, you could argue whether they're outdoor footwear specific brands. Right. Where you take, you take that.

Colin True

00:23:22.700 - 00:23:53.310

But I just think you're probably given the way things are changing and the sort of like, you know, again, the casual versus core conversation, the way where people are getting their shoes. What are you making? You know, what is your strategy for Foot Locker, especially if Dick's is already on your radar as a potential retailer?

I think there should be a brand. You should have a strategy for Foot Locker as well even. Maybe you're not going to execute on it, maybe you're not going to pitch it.

But boy, Dick, the whole sort of equation, if you're already looking at Dick's, has become much more interesting, if not more complicated given this acquisition.

Eoin Comerford

00:23:53.550 - 00:24:04.030

Oh, totally. And I mean, if you're interested in Dick's, guess what. Foot Lockers footwear volume is about twice what Dick's is.

So, hey, you know, Colin, what's your hush puppy strategy?

Producer Dave

00:24:04.030 - 00:24:05.230

Just curious about that.

Colin True

00:24:05.630 - 00:24:07.750

I would carry hush puppies in my outdoor store. Why not?

Producer Dave

00:24:07.750 - 00:24:12.830

You know, but would your hush puppy store carry other brands? That's the question.

Colin True

00:24:12.990 - 00:24:13.750

Just Crocs.

Producer Dave

00:24:13.750 - 00:24:15.710

Just Crocs exposed.

Eoin Comerford

00:24:16.830 - 00:24:17.550

Exposed things.

Colin True

00:24:17.550 - 00:24:24.370

Yeah. But you know, Hoka has a decent little assortment on there, you know, so it's. I don't know.

This is going to be really interesting to see how this all plays out.

Producer Dave

00:24:24.370 - 00:24:24.810

Yeah.

Colin True

00:24:25.450 - 00:24:28.250

All right, number six, we're halfway through the list.

Producer Dave

00:24:28.490 - 00:24:29.210

Let's go.

Colin True

00:24:29.530 - 00:24:36.090

This, this one probably could have been either the one we did first, maybe the one we closed with. We're putting it right in the middle. I think we're going to talk about it the most.

Producer Dave

00:24:36.970 - 00:24:42.970

That's a strategy to build listenership. Colin. We should be actually popping conversation.

Colin True

00:24:43.130 - 00:24:44.650

That's where the good wait for it.

Producer Dave

00:24:44.650 - 00:24:49.140

Come back when we're back. Join. Join us for this new question you're gonna love.

Colin True

00:24:50.820 - 00:24:54.500

REI makes major changes to its membership dividend.

Eoin Comerford

00:24:54.580 - 00:24:55.620

Dun dun dun.

Colin True

00:24:56.180 - 00:25:16.300

Needing to drive increased loyalty while simultaneously improving margins. REI will cut the dividend percentage for non REI branded products, but add a bunch of additional benefits primarily from outside companies.

Given that I actually bought some non REI branded products for Christmas at REI this year, this would have affected me. So, so what are you thinking here?

Eoin Comerford

00:25:16.540 - 00:25:36.700

So in their peak 28 strategic objectives that they.

That came out, I don't know, a couple three months ago, they said they promised reinvented membership update our membership program with highly differentiated offerings to deeply to deepen engagement with customers, embody our co op values and foster financial growth.

Colin True

00:25:37.020 - 00:25:47.010

So just wonderfully vague. Just so wonderfully vague. Which by the way, I'm saying that respectfully, like there was a lot there without actually saying anything.

Producer Dave

00:25:47.400 - 00:25:48.760

A lot of maneuver room in that.

Colin True

00:25:49.640 - 00:25:51.200

I'm not making fun of them but.

Eoin Comerford

00:25:51.200 - 00:25:54.760

Obviously there are going to be changes to the membership is the underlying.

Colin True

00:25:55.080 - 00:25:56.120

That's the takeaway.

Eoin Comerford

00:25:56.200 - 00:28:13.490

So I think so from a prediction perspective, I'm not exactly going too far out on a limb.

I think the biggest part is the specifics that I'm saying is the biggest one basically being that the dividend for non REI branded products will go down from 10%. I'm saying it'll go down to 5% but roughly that's a big, that's a big drop. It is. But hey, we want you to buy more of the Aria branded stuff.

So maybe the REI branded stuff goes from 10 to 15 to make up for the reduction. Right. But they make more money on the Aria branded stuff. It's unique. They want more people buying that stuff anyway.

So it's sort of a win win for them potentially. And the reason why I Think there's going to be this change in the amount is a.

They have talked somewhat publicly, but definitely off the record that I've talked to, that the dividend is a real sort of millstone around their neck financially.

It just costs a shit ton of money for them, and they need to find a way to at least make it more useful for them, which it would be if it was more about the branded product. And so when they talk about fostering financial growth, Growth, I think that's the code word for we're going to cut the dividend.

So that's the first thing I would say.

And then the other piece, the highly differentiated offerings piece, that to me says, hey, we need to add a whole bunch of stuff so people aren't totally pissed off with us. And, oh, by the way, it doesn't say people are like, oh, well. But the bylaws. The bylaws.

The bylaws basically have nothing to do with this, because in the bylaws, the board can change the dividend at will, basically. So that's nothing. But I think that what they'll do is they'll bring in a bunch of outside companies, and they've actually already started.

When I first put out this LinkedIn on this about three months ago, I said that the first one was adventure travel, and sure enough, they brought in an outside adventure travel company. So I think that's just the first of many of these outside, because this is a great benefit.

It's like, hey, you bring in this outside company, they basically pay you REI for access to your membership base, and they give your members a special deal. So it sounds like it's a good thing to the members, it's a good thing to rei. Win, win. And everything sounds rosy.

Colin True

00:28:14.210 - 00:28:22.730

What do you think? Okay, so let's say it unfolds the way you just described, just like, to the letter, just for the sake of argument, right?

You were 100% right on this prediction. What is the backlash?

Eoin Comerford

00:28:22.730 - 00:28:23.010

Right?

Colin True

00:28:23.010 - 00:28:30.570

Because I look at this and I'm like, look, I get there's going to be some people out there who aren't going to like any changes, and they're going to be noisy changes.

Producer Dave

00:28:30.570 - 00:28:31.620

The backlash column.

Eoin Comerford

00:28:32.410 - 00:28:32.890

Wait a minute.

Colin True

00:28:33.290 - 00:29:03.290

But how dare you at this point?

I mean, the key point, the operative part of your statement there, Owen, is this is a huge burden on a company that's trying to get its footing and be more profitable. And basically it's kind of like kitchen sink time for these guys.

And, you know, so I can't help but defer to Them like, look, man, figure out how to fix your business. Are you going to piss off some people along the way? Like, probably, but you need to do something here.

So what do you think the backlash is if this goes off the way you're describing driving?

Eoin Comerford

00:29:03.530 - 00:29:07.450

Well, there will be a highly public backlash, as there always is. I mean, think about, think about when.

Producer Dave

00:29:07.450 - 00:29:09.450

Rei, if you consider Reddit public.

Eoin Comerford

00:29:09.690 - 00:29:26.810

Well, exactly, and that's my point, is that if you think about when REI changed their return policy from lifetime to whatever it is now, like, you would have thought the world had ended and that nobody would ever buy from REI again. Right. I was just about to say.

Colin True

00:29:26.810 - 00:29:28.570

And yet the world continued to spin.

Eoin Comerford

00:29:28.570 - 00:29:41.590

Miraculously and they still grew and had record sales. So will there be a very public backlash and people, People burning their REI card membership cards? Yes. Will it actually hurt their sales at all?

Colin True

00:29:42.070 - 00:29:51.109

No, no, because most people are probably signed up for the program, don't understand that they're getting anything for being signed up because they gave their email or their phone number at checkout once.

Producer Dave

00:29:51.270 - 00:29:51.630

Right.

Colin True

00:29:51.630 - 00:29:58.550

And then maybe, maybe get the email at the end of the year going, hey, you have $200 to spend, or whatever it is. Maybe they don't even open it. Right.

Producer Dave

00:29:59.190 - 00:30:36.020

I want to say, I think what you've laid out here makes a lot of sense, and not just for rei, but has. That has the biggest scale. This, this is the go forward model of how brands build experience into their actual business model.

More than just offering product. Right. By coupling with all of these different things, creating loyalty programs that offer incentive and discount and access.

I mean, American Express has been doing this for, for a long time in a bigger sense. I just, it makes. I just, I think this is the way forward that a lot of brands could look to, not just rei.

Eoin Comerford

00:30:36.260 - 00:30:54.780

Sure. I mean, think of rei. They hook up with the folks at Outside, and as part of that, you get a special subscription rate to the whole outside thingy.

Bobber, you get something at the festival, at the festival, you get a free upgrade to VIP seats if you're an REI member. Whatever.

Colin True

00:30:54.780 - 00:30:55.100

Whatever.

Eoin Comerford

00:30:55.100 - 00:31:22.800

Right. And so then from outside's perspective, they get into an email that goes out to all, whatever it is, 30 million members. Okay, so that's great.

They get sort of the free advertising. REI gets a free thing that they can, that they can promote as yet another benefit.

Like if you add up all the benefits of being an REI member, it's worth whatever, $1,000 a year just for being a member, just for paying $30 for your membership one time. Right. So it just makes a ton of sense.

Producer Dave

00:31:22.880 - 00:31:42.580

This is much, much more thoughtful than my solution, I think, which was this is good. Which was, I just think they could just, if they have a problem with paying out, just have fewer members and just recycle your membership base. Right.

And just kind of ground them down, turn them into kind of new members, kind of the REI REMEM program.

Colin True

00:31:42.660 - 00:31:43.940

Is this a Floribus solution?

Producer Dave

00:31:44.260 - 00:31:53.940

Well, it just makes sense, right? They solve their sustainability issue. They solve their membership issue. Like it really, it ticks a lot of boxes. But I think yours is better.

Eoin Comerford

00:31:54.260 - 00:32:02.980

Well, listen, at the next level, that's not the craziest idea, Dave. Well, no, because outdoor cannibalism is good.

Producer Dave

00:32:02.980 - 00:32:04.740

Somebody started day drinking.

Eoin Comerford

00:32:04.740 - 00:32:40.070

I see, See, I'm not suggesting outdoor cannibalism or even grinding people up. But what it got me thinking about though is the fact that it is a lifetime membership today. And so you get people that.

To your point, Colin signed up 30 years ago and never thought twice about it. But if you flip the membership model to an annual membership where you've got to pay because that's the other way to solve it.

Do the 10% back, that's all awesome. But hey, to get the 10% back you've got to pay whatever or add.

Producer Dave

00:32:40.390 - 00:32:45.750

It within the year. Right? By, by purchasing as a, a membership.

Eoin Comerford

00:32:46.150 - 00:32:58.390

Well, but, but I mean you only, you only get the dividend if you, if you buy. Right? So it's so fair enough, fair enough. That's sort of a, a given.

But yeah, I, I, I, that that's the other option would be to make it an actual annual membership.

Colin True

00:32:59.350 - 00:33:30.780

Congratulations to us because we're six predictions in, I mean to Owen, Owen wrote the list, but six predictions in. No footwear mentions. Oh, until now. Prediction number seven, Hoka's growth flattens out in 2025.

All of Hoka's growth came from the international, from international markets. As US sales slowed in 2026, the international growth will no longer be enough to make up for US declines. So this is the easiest one to write.

Eoin Comerford

00:33:31.890 - 00:34:29.100

I mean you never know in terms of what might happen, but if the current trends continue, I think this is true because their sales growth actually had been sort of mid teens in 2024 even in the US so things are going fine now. They've dropped to flat to down single digits. Okay.

And obviously the US is their biggest market, but in overall they were up 10% for an overall brand because their international sales were up 30, 40% in a quarter. So that was great. If the US sales continue to slide. So instead of being down 2%, we're now down 5% which is where the trend would take us.

It's going to be hard to comp those international numbers year on year increases. So maybe those drop down to 10, 15%. You're probably at that point growth is going to slow, if not totally stall for hoka.

And that's, that's basically what the prediction is.

Colin True

00:34:29.980 - 00:35:06.990

This feels like it was inevitable at some point, right?

I mean even like you're seeing trend shifts, we're seeing some more minimal stuff come back into play right away from sort of the traditional like what HOKA has built itself upon. I mean Dave, what would you say is hoka's next move?

Because I feel like this feels a little under armourish in terms of like this sort of massive growth explosion of a brand. It gets to this point, they're the next thing, they're the next thing thing. Hit some headwinds, right? Trends change, whatever.

And now it's kind of that time and maybe Lulu is another comp of like just, you know, like, hey, this is like we can ride this rocket ship forever. Oh no, it's time, it's time for a little bit of a slowdown.

Producer Dave

00:35:06.990 - 00:35:31.560

I don't know, I don't know. I don't know if we've seen the ceiling on hoka, right? I think what do they need to do? Well, I think they need to regain stack height supremacy.

I mean clearly they have wavered in that commitment and I think next year we're going to see them introduce possibly the first 110 millimeter heel stack height shoe which is double right now, what's being out there in the market. And so I think that's what they need is a leap, if you will, into.

Colin True

00:35:31.560 - 00:35:36.120

I want to tell you to like stop kidding around but I'm like, I don't think you might be right.

Producer Dave

00:35:36.200 - 00:35:51.420

No. Up is the only way, Colin. And just for anybody who wants to know, how big is 110 millimeter? It's about 44 slices of cheese, right?

So if you put 44 slices of cheese, that's what you're talking about and I think that is the path.

Colin True

00:35:52.060 - 00:35:53.380

No, but all kidding aside, if you.

Producer Dave

00:35:53.380 - 00:35:57.100

Were charged, I am not kidding, I'm not kidding, I'd go higher, I'd go.

Colin True

00:35:57.100 - 00:35:58.820

Bigger, go higher, go higher on the heritage, right?

Producer Dave

00:35:58.820 - 00:36:07.620

Their whole business model is based on inflating one's posture. So I think this just totally makes sense. If they're flattening, just go to the go to the well go to the.

Eoin Comerford

00:36:07.620 - 00:36:12.220

Well bigger and just increase your product liability insurance for all the twisted ankles.

Producer Dave

00:36:12.460 - 00:36:28.910

That's right. That's right. But I think you could do that. No, look, they created a look and of course that trend line is going to come down. You just.

There's no way about that. So it's. We've talked about this with other brands. You're going to have to.

Eoin Comerford

00:36:29.390 - 00:36:36.270

But we talked about it at Tre. Every shoe looks like Hoka. I mean, it's. I put out a post on LinkedIn.

Colin True

00:36:36.510 - 00:36:37.390

Yeah, yeah.

Eoin Comerford

00:36:37.630 - 00:36:47.910

Eight different shoes where I took off the branding and it was, you know, unless you were really like deep into this business, trying to pick out one versus the other would have been tough.

Colin True

00:36:47.910 - 00:36:49.790

Unless you were calling Ashanta is what I would.

Producer Dave

00:36:51.610 - 00:36:56.330

Claire, look, those were only black shoes. So. Okay. Right. I got a hocus.

Colin True

00:36:57.530 - 00:36:59.010

I'll kitty side that. You're not wrong.

Producer Dave

00:36:59.010 - 00:37:38.090

No, but there's the. There is the.

Can they develop and can they get out of their own way and create something that expands their design language away from this thing they created that has clearly going to see a trend line for its, you know, for its fad, if you will. But can they start to move in another direction that allows them to maybe invent the next. Next trend line?

But still it's always going to be that internal debate of what's, what is Hoka and what is not. And I'm sure they're having those discussions. Color is one of those things.

I'm sure that they'll continue it, but I don't think that's enough to reverse it. I think we're talking about a new shape and a new plane for them to play in.

Colin True

00:37:38.250 - 00:37:42.490

I think. Do you think we're going all in on apparel? We got to get our apparel line going.

Producer Dave

00:37:42.570 - 00:37:48.290

Oh, you know, that's going on. And the accessories bit. Business. Let's go. Let's go.

Colin True

00:37:48.610 - 00:37:50.130

What categories can we break into?

Producer Dave

00:37:50.290 - 00:37:50.770

Denim.

Colin True

00:37:50.770 - 00:37:52.050

The Hoka denim, I think.

Producer Dave

00:37:52.290 - 00:37:59.250

Well, eyewear would be the one that I would see. Hoka eyewear. Big, fat, big, you know, big lensed eyewear. Come on.

Eoin Comerford

00:38:01.250 - 00:38:11.130

So do you. We talked about their most recent campaign, which really talked about the. That how trail running kind of brings people together.

And I think that was the.

Colin True

00:38:11.130 - 00:38:12.050

That was a really good ad.

Eoin Comerford

00:38:12.130 - 00:38:30.180

It was a good ad. Right. And. And I think that could be part of the.

Of what they're looking to do here is really re embracing their core to reposition the brand back as this enthusiast running brand as opposed to the mall walking brand that it has become for sure. Right.

Producer Dave

00:38:30.180 - 00:38:40.860

Which they're doing. Which they're definitely doing. Yeah. And help set them up for that again, that accessories path. Hoka cologne. I think the smell of Hoka. I think.

Colin True

00:38:40.860 - 00:38:42.300

What does Hoka cologne smell?

Producer Dave

00:38:42.300 - 00:38:44.860

Oh, I don't know, but I've been bet it's inspirational.

Eoin Comerford

00:38:45.500 - 00:38:49.180

Sure. Hoka ankle brace. A whole whole line of ankle braces.

Producer Dave

00:38:49.580 - 00:38:58.140

Oh, that's a great idea. I really like that. You know what? The I think ankle. But don't forget the wrist. That's the unsung hero in a ball.

Eoin Comerford

00:38:58.140 - 00:38:58.780

That's true.

Producer Dave

00:38:58.780 - 00:39:02.060

So I think, dude, I think rising that up could be amazing.

Eoin Comerford

00:39:02.380 - 00:39:04.660

And we could do elbow pads too, you know.

Producer Dave

00:39:04.660 - 00:39:11.880

Oh, sure. Like, I think like late 1970s skateboarding, knee pads, elbow pads, maybe some thin helmets.

Eoin Comerford

00:39:11.880 - 00:39:12.600

That's awesome.

Producer Dave

00:39:12.760 - 00:39:13.280

Okay.

Colin True

00:39:13.280 - 00:39:15.080

Gotta wear these when you wear your giant stuff.

Producer Dave

00:39:15.080 - 00:39:18.360

Full contact mall walking. I think it's a sport we can get behind.

Eoin Comerford

00:39:19.480 - 00:39:19.840

All right.

Colin True

00:39:19.840 - 00:39:37.740

Prediction number 8. Used gear makes it onto the main product page.

Used gear will move from brands lightly traffic dedicated used gear sites and onto the main product page as key brands start to realize that these sales support their new business rather than cannibalized. This is what I want to happen.

Producer Dave

00:39:37.980 - 00:39:38.900

I love this one.

Eoin Comerford

00:39:38.900 - 00:39:39.380

I do.

Producer Dave

00:39:39.380 - 00:39:40.860

I want this to happen too.

Colin True

00:39:42.460 - 00:39:45.340

Owen's nothing if not an optimist. Go ahead, Owen. What do you got on this one?

Eoin Comerford

00:39:45.340 - 00:41:21.350

So what I would say is this was actually inspired by Patagonia. I was on patagonia.com and they now have actually moved it such that it's like a tab. So the main for wornware. Yeah.

So if you go onto the better sweater page. Right. The main tab is the new product and all the colors and sizes available. But then there's like a little tab thing.

You click and then you can see here are all of the used stuff that's available. Now. The challenge I have with the Patagonia one was the surprising lack of inventory, like for a men's better sweater. Right.

I think that's probably their top selling product. They had one one color size option available. A blue, small, better sweater. That was it. Right.

So that's like either a, they're very successful in moving through their used gear, which in which case, kudos, Patagonia.

Maybe this thing has really taken off by moving to this approach, which I hope that's what's happening as opposed to they just don't actually get any of this used gear despite talking about it a lot. But I think this is the answer because otherwise they get all this product, whether it's actually used Gear or returns or whatever else.

This is going to really help to sell through that product.

It's going to bring a new customer in who wasn't going to buy the new stuff and even the new people who probably were never going to buy used will think better of you because you have it available. So I just think it's a win, win for the brand, it's a win for the environment.

Colin True

00:41:21.590 - 00:41:52.470

It should have happen as much as I think that would be a good thing if it did. And I don't like the separate sites and the sort of lack of promotion of the sites and the clear prioritization of new product.

Isn't this, even if this does happen in a larger way, isn't it still just another delay towards the inevitable outcome of like just more like gear trades and third party sellers who take care of this and to sort of like partner with them, let them handle it and you make new stuff. They're the experts on the used stuff. Let them do it.

I just feel like that should be the, the, the, the, the goal we're driving towards with all of our brands.

Producer Dave

00:41:52.470 - 00:42:12.590

Just because it's being moved to a different expertise doesn't mean there's still not a brand implication to it. So if I'm a brand and I'm still having contracting out, I would still be using it as a promotional and conversation piece.

I would still be elevating the imagery around that. Right. There's a lot that's a maturing side of the market that we're just not at yet.

Colin True

00:42:12.590 - 00:42:13.830

For the One Blue small.

Eoin Comerford

00:42:14.150 - 00:42:14.630

Yes.

Producer Dave

00:42:14.630 - 00:42:48.720

That is why it's about the concept. Well, this is the problem. This is the difference in times of branding versus retail. Right. I'm not moving the One Blue small.

I'm moving the idea of go here and find a treasure and that you're going to get value. That's what we need to see from their advertising and get away from this idea that I'm pushing an item in my used bin.

But it's this concept of where you can go and prioritizing it from a message that's changed his consumer behavior. Right. And so I would say that is a responsibility of the brands to start integrating that into their messaging.

Eoin Comerford

00:42:49.760 - 00:42:51.040

I agree. Yeah.

Colin True

00:42:51.120 - 00:42:57.520

That assumes that they're good at advertising. So let's, let's help them with that. You should advertise in the rock fight if you want to have that message get out to the larger.

Producer Dave

00:42:57.920 - 00:43:04.640

If anything reassures me of their skill at advertising, just cycle through Instagram for a few minutes and boy, that'll let you know.

Colin True

00:43:05.760 - 00:43:21.890

Well, I mean, this is a different can of words, maybe a different episode, but I mean, that is a challenge. Right? A lot of things we talk about is messaging and positioning.

And if you really step back and take the industry as a whole, we're not calling anybody specifically out. Not real great at that. Right. You know, so courage, Colin.

Producer Dave

00:43:21.890 - 00:43:24.250

It's courage, not a challenge. It just takes courage.

Colin True

00:43:25.130 - 00:43:33.770

All right, pin in that for a future episode. All right, prediction number nine. We're getting the last two guys still listening.

Producer Dave

00:43:33.850 - 00:43:35.050

We're at number nine.

Colin True

00:43:35.290 - 00:44:03.080

Don't worry. We're going to bring it back in because we. We went to sustainability from footwear. Getting right back to footwear. Here we we go.

We will reach peak trail running culture.

Trail running makes the leap to mainstream, becoming a bigger percentage of assortment beyond outdoor and run specialty, influencing more lifestyle footwear and apparel trail corps, perhaps, and more trail running news in mainstream sports and media outlets. Owen, when did they get to you and how did they break you? I want to hear the full story.

Eoin Comerford

00:44:03.480 - 00:44:07.780

It was actually a tre. They pulled me into the back room. Yeah, it was.

Colin True

00:44:07.860 - 00:44:08.940

Drink this Kool Aid.

Eoin Comerford

00:44:08.940 - 00:44:15.700

Yeah, it was a sock. Full weighted sock. They just started whapping me with from Smart Wool, as I remember.

Producer Dave

00:44:15.700 - 00:44:17.460

It's a compression sock, actually.

Eoin Comerford

00:44:20.740 - 00:44:28.060

But yeah, because I don't know, it feels like certainly on this podcast that we have already reached peak trail core.

Colin True

00:44:28.060 - 00:44:29.580

Here, but just giving up, man.

Eoin Comerford

00:44:29.580 - 00:44:31.460

No, remember that we work 12 to.

Producer Dave

00:44:31.460 - 00:44:34.260

18 months out, so it really hasn't even hit there yet.

Eoin Comerford

00:44:34.900 - 00:45:03.080

And that's exactly my point. We're kind of maybe there within in the specialty channel, but we're talking. This is broader, right? This is saying, no, no, no. It's out there.

And the interesting thing is, like, if you look right now on the streets of Manhattan, the Salomon XT6 is like the shoe. That's what people are wearing.

So again, if the coasts are on, you know, are kind of the leading edge for, for what happens for the rest of the country. This is happening. I mean, it's.

Chris DeMakes

00:45:03.080 - 00:45:03.320

And.

Eoin Comerford

00:45:03.320 - 00:45:11.750

And it's. And it's not. It's definitely not about people actually trail running, but it's about people wanting to look as if they're trail running for footwear.

Colin True

00:45:11.750 - 00:45:12.270

I agree with you.

Eoin Comerford

00:45:12.270 - 00:45:12.470

Right.

Colin True

00:45:12.470 - 00:45:52.210

I mean, you go back. This is the Rihanna thing. Solomon, again, another one to bring up. People are starting to wear that more, I think.

You know, we know that trail running shoes have basically taken, you know, our light hikers out to the woodshed and brutally murdered them right so it's taken over. I just don't believe that trail running makes any leap to the mainstream beyond shoes.

I, I don't, I don't think that it's going to be in the regular conversation with activities and sports and what trail running is any more so than any of these other activities we talk about. Is there a trend possibility? Absolutely. Especially with shoes. I just not sure I can get there on the other stuff. Dave, what do you think?

Producer Dave

00:45:52.210 - 00:45:58.960

I think hair's getting longer, beards are getting bushier. I think we're going to see a back to the land movement that is left.

Eoin Comerford

00:45:59.110 - 00:45:59.350

Led.

Producer Dave

00:45:59.670 - 00:46:04.470

Led by the trail runners a little bit faster. I'm all for it.

Eoin Comerford

00:46:05.190 - 00:46:19.270

So will there be a trail running event this year that is mentioned on any of the ESPNs 1 through 12 this year, would you say?

Colin True

00:46:20.630 - 00:46:26.710

No, no and only. I mean, I just had to think which Olympics we're getting this year. And it's the Winter Olympics.

Producer Dave

00:46:27.670 - 00:46:37.860

If there's an SEC tailgate going on on that trail, yes, they'll be all over it. But if it doesn't involve college football and in the southeast United States, it will not be on espn.

Colin True

00:46:37.860 - 00:46:51.140

I guess if it's one of those gets a mention. I'm sure right now, like so and so western states, there's a blurb like those things I'm sure probably happen now. I think that happens.

But in terms of like coverage, like there's coverage of other sports.

Eoin Comerford

00:46:51.140 - 00:46:53.100

The Boston Marathon coverage, for example.

Colin True

00:46:53.340 - 00:46:54.100

Yeah, exactly.

Eoin Comerford

00:46:54.100 - 00:46:54.660

Not gonna.

Colin True

00:46:54.660 - 00:46:55.220

I think, yeah.

Producer Dave

00:46:55.220 - 00:47:03.320

To be fair, that coverage gets a single line in their little top five headlines and it lasts for four hours. Hours. And then it's, you know, taken out by again.

Colin True

00:47:03.480 - 00:47:04.360

Boston Marathon.

Producer Dave

00:47:04.360 - 00:47:05.520

Yeah. You know, and then it's.

Colin True

00:47:05.520 - 00:47:08.200

Right. Carry around the fact that the Red Sox play the same day.

Producer Dave

00:47:08.920 - 00:47:10.200

Right, right.

Colin True

00:47:11.240 - 00:47:18.960

Yeah. Trust me, I'm still bought in on trail running. I agree with where it's going within the industry. I just, I just can't.

I can't get on board with the mainstream thing. But we'll see.

Eoin Comerford

00:47:18.960 - 00:47:19.560

We'll see.

Producer Dave

00:47:19.560 - 00:47:20.360

All right, fine.

Colin True

00:47:20.920 - 00:47:22.560

All right, last one. Prediction number 10.

Producer Dave

00:47:22.560 - 00:47:28.330

Okay, here we are. Colin, we're at number 10. Oh, my gosh. We've made it to the end.

Colin True

00:47:29.440 - 00:47:56.050

We know there's some outdoor folks out there that are not going to like this one because it's AI becomes your outdoor gear buddy. Taking up a new outdoor sport can be intimidating.

So major retailers will launch AI driven Personas that will answer all of your questions, put together a custom packing list and make a bunch of gear recommendations. Based on your personal needs, skill level, trip weather conditions, et cetera. I mean, this is already kind of happening, right?

You can do this on like chatgpt and stuff like that, right?

Eoin Comerford

00:47:56.130 - 00:48:43.460

Sure, you could do it on ChatGPT.

And there are even companies out there like Remark, that is with remark.com, a friend of, not really a friend of the pod, but that's a company that I've chatted with in the past that specifically specialize in the outdoor space. But they actually tie AI in with human experts.

But really, I think in a lot of ways the human experts are training the AI to be able to do it themselves in the future. Right. And so right now you've got these chatbots, and chatbots are getting way better.

But I'm talking about where it's really a forward facing AI version of a green vest for REI or something, where they're actually on the website saying, how can I help you to do X, Y or Z?

Colin True

00:48:43.860 - 00:49:35.300

Back to my dig about the industry and advertising, do we feel that outdoor retailers are savvy enough to want this?

And also, well, the blowback on AI, at least again, anecdotally looking at social media and things like that from the outdoor community is still pretty anti at this point, right? There's not a lot of folks out there.

I see plenty of people out there right now, like, don't support this, you know, support artists, don't get into AI, you know, ban AI, just like stuff like, which frankly is kind of a silly thing to say. It's not going to happen. Like the ship has sailed. Right? We know that.

But it still seems to be the more general sentiment of the space space, wouldn't that get in the way potentially of this actually happening?

Couldn't you see, talking about the Reddit boards, if REI rolled out an AI assistant, that could be perceived as taking people off the retail floor and all of this stuff. I think the outdoor community and industry would have a tough time with this.

Eoin Comerford

00:49:35.380 - 00:50:17.130

I think some people would. But again, I think the reality is most folks buying from REI actually would really appreciate this kind of help. Right?

And it's where things are right now, you know, and even, like, even looking at the folks that Remark is working with, it's a lot of bigger. They work with Darn Trevor, they work with Pearl Izumi, they work with, you know, a bunch of different players already in the space quietly, right?

They're not out there saying, oh, oh, oh, we have all this AI here, but it's out there. It's already there to a degree. It's just how much you want to kind of come, you know, to the, to the forefront with it.

Colin True

00:50:18.010 - 00:50:21.130

Dave, you're the master of Rockflight's AI.

Producer Dave

00:50:22.090 - 00:50:48.810

Well, look, I mean, there's two sides to this. There's the. Essentially what you're describing about is just more shopping features. How do I pick my gear, how do I choose my items?

And that's already happening. I mean, most websites you deal with are already using some form of that anyway, whether you choose to call it AI or not. Not.

And again, I don't think this is a 2026 thing, but I, I look a little more over the horizon about this and imagine a.

Eoin Comerford

00:50:49.850 - 00:50:50.250

A.

Producer Dave

00:50:50.330 - 00:51:42.720

Well, you've got trail. Apps are essentially forms of AI in terms of, you know, plotting, planning trips and, and understanding the features.

Now take that to another level of depth and understanding. You know, large language models aren't going to replace lawyers. Law specific language models are going to replace lawyers.

So take that and add the idea of that knowledge in terms of guides, of first responder, things like that. Then you're going to create this useful tool that goes beyond what we have right now that can live in your device.

It doesn't require to be hooked up, things like that.

I think that's where the real benefit from AI is going to come from when we start to tap the deep well of specific knowledge bases and make that more accessible.

Eoin Comerford

00:51:42.960 - 00:52:06.480

And I think that's.

That's important with, with any of these sorts of LLMs would be that it would be trained on all of the, all of the resources, let's say of REI or all of the gearhead chats that ever existed within backcountry, what have you. Right. You're training it on true expertise as opposed to a broader LLM that's pulling stuff out of Reddit that is exactly. Ridiculously stupid. Right?

Chris DeMakes

00:52:06.550 - 00:52:06.790

Right.

Eoin Comerford

00:52:07.190 - 00:52:09.310

Yeah. So that's.

Producer Dave

00:52:09.310 - 00:52:09.590

Right.

Chris DeMakes

00:52:09.910 - 00:52:10.310

No.

Producer Dave

00:52:10.310 - 00:52:15.830

Offer the bear a drink. Right? There you go. That's just. That'll appease them.

Eoin Comerford

00:52:15.910 - 00:52:16.670

Yeah, yeah. Just.

Colin True

00:52:16.670 - 00:52:25.870

Just this episode isn't out yet, but Owen's invite to GOA Connect has already been revoked for. Right. They already got. They knew this conversation was happening.

Producer Dave

00:52:25.870 - 00:52:34.120

Rei. AI. What are you talking about? Re. Reai. There we go. Now we've got it. Reai. The new app.

Colin True

00:52:35.240 - 00:52:37.960

That's the. I mean, that's what I mean. I'm thinking of the. The.

Eoin Comerford

00:52:38.040 - 00:52:38.440

Just.

Colin True

00:52:38.920 - 00:52:43.160

That's the next thing here. Right. So I, I agree with you guys. This is happening. This is going to happen.

Producer Dave

00:52:43.160 - 00:52:43.440

Yeah.

Colin True

00:52:43.440 - 00:52:53.560

Right. It's, you know, right. To a certain degree. But then it's going to be the we are an AI free store. Right.

Just you could see you have play this thing out with what's going to happen in the outdoor industry and how the response is going to be.

Producer Dave

00:52:53.720 - 00:52:54.040

Right.

Colin True

00:52:54.040 - 00:52:59.120

Which, you know, it's hilarious because as people were posting, posting things like this on Instagram, it's like how much AI was.

Producer Dave

00:52:59.120 - 00:53:05.270

But I haven't. But I have an Eddi Inventory. Inventory. And I use Photoshop in my graphics and all of those things.

Eoin Comerford

00:53:05.830 - 00:53:13.910

We're going to have an AO campaign for authentically outdoorsy. And that will be. Yeah, the antique.

Producer Dave

00:53:14.070 - 00:53:19.510

Yeah. And we'll get sued by the Australian Open. But that'll be a great, great story into itself.

Chris DeMakes

00:53:19.670 - 00:53:39.840

You're my outdoor buddy with a silicone soul. Running my checklist from the north to South Pole. You know, my trip, my size, my fears, Telling me which gloves and which kind of beers.

I may be new to this outdoor game, but there ain't no need to feel cruddy. Cause I got my AI pal, my outdoor buddy.

Colin True

00:53:51.120 - 00:53:54.400

Dave's response. I'm going to write, I'm going to have AI write me a song.

Chris DeMakes

00:53:58.060 - 00:54:00.060

It's time for a parting shot.

Colin True

00:54:01.740 - 00:56:37.430

All right, time for the parting shot. Sorry to make you guys listen to my voice a little bit more. But before we get there, you know the parting shots.

It's brought to you by Garage Growing Gear. New items are constantly being added over on Garage Grown Gear like Sam Bob's Alpha Joggers. Sam Bob making Alpha joggers.

Now, guys, you can get Alpha Pants, Toque's Titanium cup, as well as the Rock Fights brand of the year for 2024. Norda. That's right, Nordic Trail running shoes now available on GGG. Head to garagegrowngear.com to check it out.

So for the parting shot, we got an email the other day from former Rock Fight guest and friend of the pod, Darren Jose. He sent us a YouTube video from the Rose Anvil channel.

Now, Rose Anvil, if you're unfamiliar, is a channel that cuts boots and shoes in half to determine their quality and to rate and review who is making the best quality footwear out out there.

In a recent video, the Rose Anvil guys took a look at a new boot from Timberland, the luxe waterproof boot, which they claim is a high end heritage version of their classic yellow boot. They look very similar, the yellow boot, the 161s versus the luxe waterproof. But it's supposedly a higher quality version of that.

I'll link the video in the show notes, and I encourage everyone to watch it. But the key takeaways is that the Lux Waterproof, priced at $380, is a massive piece of.

It's made of poor materials and constructed even more poorly and is nearly twice the cost of the original boot, which is about $210. Even though they claim it is made with better materials and better construction. That, on its own, sucks.

And Tim Timberland should issue an apology and probably recall any remaining Luxe waterproofs they've shipped. But the bigger issue that I want to highlight here, and I definitely want to have you guys weigh in on it, is that this is.

This is kind of the modern outdoor industry. We have 50 years of building an industry based on quality and innovation, and we trust these brands that are making these products.

And that trust can be exploited when the vast majority of products being sold aren't being used for anything other than daily life. And we all know that Timberland is owned by vf.

And in the debate between profitability and quality, I think we have a sneaking suspicion of which side VEF is going to favor. And it also sets a terrible precedent for putting quality first.

Brands who still hang their hat on performance, using quality as a differential and potentially sacrificing profit margin in the name of that quality have to compete with brands and products that seem to value the same thing and have a history of valuing that quality, but are now just making overpriced bullshit. So a hearty well done to Rose Anvil a hardier. What the actual. Fuck, Timberland. But that's my parting shot, guys. What a.

Producer Dave

00:56:37.990 - 00:56:39.510

It's also your former employer.

Colin True

00:56:39.750 - 00:56:50.100

Well, right. Thank you. Yeah, I meant to mention that it is. Yeah, it's like, come on, man. Like, I see these boots and it means a little something to me.

I spent five years there. You guys watched the video. What'd you think?

Eoin Comerford

00:56:50.500 - 00:57:24.380

I was really blown away. This isn't just a, like, oh, they kind of cut some corners here. This is just.

No, this thing is a piece of shit that they actively tried to make look like it was a heritage piece, like, with the stitched in welting, et cetera. That looks like. Like something. But then when you go and deconstruct the shoe. Has no functional purpose.

Is purely for looks to fool the customer into thinking it is something that it's not.

Colin True

00:57:25.020 - 00:57:35.260

Plenty of boot makers do that, but they're sold at, like, Walmart for, like, $120. Right? They show, like, stitching, and it's just glued together. This is a $380 boot from Timberland.

Eoin Comerford

00:57:35.340 - 00:58:12.330

Timberland, exactly.

That talks to all about the incredible, incredible craftsmanship, quote unquote, that goes into this booth that's obviously made in a sneaker factory in Bangladesh. Okay. And you know, I actually, people probably at VF think that I'm not a fan. I actually am not. I'm not a VF hater.

You know, I think they do good things.

There are lots of amazing brands that work at vf, A lot of amazing people that work at vf, you know, but this is the kind of shit, quite frankly, that just gives these kind of companies a bad name. It does. It totally validates the haters, the people.

Colin True

00:58:12.330 - 00:58:18.850

Who just sort of blindly hate VF for the sake of it, because they're big and make money or whatever. Like this is this what. This gives them an argument, right?

Eoin Comerford

00:58:18.850 - 00:59:13.370

And so, I mean, if I work for vf, I am just like so pissed at this kind of stuff because this is the stuff that really undermines everything. And you know, like we were talking about before, before we started recording here, it's like, well, how did, did this product come about?

And what I hope happened is that someone came up with this idea, a really cool idea to make this heritage boot.

So somebody with a brand said that and then a designer got involved and they designed this really cool looking shoe with the welting and all the stuff, and it was really great. And that somewhere along the way value engineering came into play and the whole thing got effed over and derailed in the supply chain process.

As opposed to the other alternative, which is. No, no. They knew from the get go that they were going to basically create a piece of shit and try to, you know, have 85% margins.

Producer Dave

00:59:13.450 - 01:00:52.910

Yeah, that. That video is very powerful. And in terms of, you know, he compares it to the, the classic boot with, with this.

And to see the thinness of materials, to see just, you can see very plainly where the corners were. Despect, I believe. Value engineering I like better than de specking. But they clearly built this to hit a margin point. There's just no way around it.

No designer is going in there willingly making those choices. No designer, I really believe, and maybe I'm out of school here, but wants to go in and change that boot in any appreciable way like that.

That's just, it's so well made and so done. Just a quick.

And you know, it's apples, maybe not apples to oranges, but you go to a brand like Danner and they have a bull run Moc toe, which is a very similar style to that Timberland wheat. Obviously there's some differences, but the big difference is it' here, right.

First off, and it uses premium materials and that thing's going to last you 10 years or more. And it's 270 bucks. Right. And so it's a full hundred dollars.

Now they have higher cost boots that also are, you know, more rigorous, but this is kind of that classic. Oh, actually the, the Bull Run actually has a steel toe in it too. So you're actually adding more pieces to that.

But my point is they're playing in a price point where that just. You could talk about domestic manufacturing. You can be talking about some of the finest materials shoes that are used by small run boot makers. Right.

It's just like that level. That should be the most ultimate Timberland boot that you can make in that way. They should still be making it in New England, for crying out loud.

Right.

Eoin Comerford

01:00:53.550 - 01:01:36.490

And that then becomes a branding piece.

You should actually throw margin out the window when it comes to something like this and say, no, we want to make the best Timberland that's ever been made. And even if we're only going to make 50 points of margin on it or whatever, who cares?

Because it's going to be this pinnacle piece that will push the brand forward. And okay, so whatever. We don't make as much margin on this, but in the grand scheme, we're only going to sell whatever, a few thousand of them.

Who cares? It's a branding piece. The flip side of this is.

No, no, no, you're still going to spend a few thousand of them, but it's going to damage your brand way more than the value that you got by putting this piece of garbage into the market.

Producer Dave

01:01:37.620 - 01:01:38.980

Yeah, yeah.

Colin True

01:01:39.220 - 01:01:40.740

It's pretty astounding, I guess.

Chris DeMakes

01:01:41.380 - 01:01:41.860

Yeah.

Colin True

01:01:42.020 - 01:01:53.219

So the original one is made in the Dominican, which is. It's kind of a cool story. You're right. I agree, Dave. It was cooler when it was made in New Hampshire, but you know, it's made in the Dominican.

210 bucks and it's a better quality thing.

Producer Dave

01:01:53.219 - 01:01:53.700

Yeah.

Colin True

01:01:54.260 - 01:01:58.900

I guess for us we have an early contender for brand boner of the year.

Eoin Comerford

01:01:59.060 - 01:01:59.700

Oh, yeah.

Producer Dave

01:01:59.700 - 01:02:01.700

Well, it's a good way to start, I think.

Colin True

01:02:01.700 - 01:02:06.590

I mean, yeah, week one, we're already. You're on watch. We'll see who else can.

Producer Dave

01:02:06.590 - 01:02:14.310

And is the brand boner doing making the, the boot in the first place or was it getting caught in such a public and exposed way?

Colin True

01:02:15.110 - 01:02:23.910

I just kept wait, I wanted, I was watching, going, okay, it's not going to be that bad. Okay. It's not going to be that bad. It just kept getting worse and worse the longer the guy went.

Eoin Comerford

01:02:25.350 - 01:02:37.810

By the way, kudos to Rose Anvil and the work that they do. And I would really encourage people to watch this video, even if you're not a gear nerd or a footwear nerd. It was fascinating. Fascinating.

Really great stuff.

Colin True

01:02:37.890 - 01:02:57.330

Yeah, well, that's kind of what I want to get at. It's bad for the industry to do stuff like this. I mean, it just, it muddies the waters.

You already have a brand that already, you know, has a ton of clout.

It takes the attention away from people who are maybe doing it well or maybe, you know, starts to create doubt for people about, you know, needlessly for other brands, you know, And I, I don't know. Like, I look at.

Eoin Comerford

01:02:57.650 - 01:02:58.250

This isn't.

Colin True

01:02:58.250 - 01:03:26.290

This is definitely not the only case of this, I am sure, but it's a good example of what, you know, this industry should not be. All right, so that's the parting shot.

If anybody at Timberland is listening to this and knows the backstory here and want to speak anonymously off the record. MyRockFight Gmail.com is the email address. Reach out would love to hear from you. You can get in touch with any of us through LinkedIn as well.

Again, we promise to keep it completely off the record, but we would love to hear the story, the behind the scenes story of how this came to be. May maybe there's a really good explanation. Be tough to know what that could.

Producer Dave

01:03:26.290 - 01:03:28.610

Be, but in which case we'd love to hear it on the record.

Colin True

01:03:29.580 - 01:04:07.590

Yeah, well, you're definitely welcome to come on the record. You don't have to. And thanks to Darren for sending it in as well. That's the show for today. Remember, look for the survey.

Do you agree with Owen's predictions? Want to hear what you guys have to think? We'll report on that on next week's episode. The Rock Fight is a production of Rock Fight llc.

Today's episode produced by producer Dave with art direction provided by Sarah Gensert. For Owen Comerford, I'm COLIN True. It's 2026 and we're back.

Thank you so much for listening and here to take us out is our guy, Chris d' Mex with the Rock Fight Fight song. He was not made in a Bangladesh sneaker factory. He's from Gainesville, Florida. We'll see you next time. Rock Fighters.

Producer Dave

01:04:07.750 - 01:04:08.630

Tropical Fruit.

Chris DeMakes

01:04:08.630 - 01:05:09.050

Rock Fight. Rock Fight. Rock Fight. Rock Fight.