Defining The Impossible Choices In The Trump Tariffs
- colin7931
- May 5
- 33 min read
Today on the show Colin is joined by outdoor industry insider Eoin Comerford to check in on Eoin's 2025 predictions for the outdoor industry given how things have gone off of the trails over the past month (05:56).
Then Eoin walks us through the model he put together to demonstrate the impacts the current tariffs that are in place are having on a small outdoor brand(16:15). That leads to Colin & Eoin talking about the amount of brands that are publicly addressing the tariff situation, searching for signs of hope, and what kind of timeline we are on (26:42).
Lastly it's a very lighthearted edition of The Parting Shot as Colin & Eoin remember why they are in the outdoor industry to begin with (39:34).
Check out hundreds of wildly cool products by visiting and shopping at Garage Grown Gear!
Sign up for NEWS FROM THE FRONT, Rock Fight's weekly newsletter by heading to www.rockfight.co and clicking Join The Mailing List.
Please follow and subscribe to The Rock Fight and give us a 5 star rating and a written review wherever you get your podcasts.
Want to pick a fight with The Rock Fight? Send your feedback, questions, and comments to myrockfight@gmail.com.
Click Here To Listen On Your Favorite Podcast App
Or Just Click The Player Below!
Episode Transcript:
Colin True
00:00:01.200 - 00:02:12.456
Today's episode of the Rock Fight is presented by Oboz, who wants to share the love of hiking. And we want to help them by uncovering all the different reasons we love to take the long walk, including the following. Number one.
Starry night skies until you hear rustling and remember oh my God, I am not at a planetarium. Number two. You meet interesting people on trails or people who just really want to talk about their gear. Set up.
Number three Birdsong over honking horns. You know nature's Spotify. Number four.
You sleep better after a hike, mainly because you're too sore to move at Number five, hiking means the Bridger Boot Collection. The Bridger Ridge is here to help you smooth out the rough trails in front of you with enhanced stability and protection.
The Bridger Ridge is Oboz first boot with Gore Tex. So bring on the smiles and the miles in the Bridger Ridge.
And if you're in the Tucson, Arizona area, head to Summit Hut to check out their entire offering of Oboz because this hiking appreciation moment is brought to you by oboz of Bozeman, Montana certified B Corp. 6 million tree planter and inhabitant of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.
Oboz is the maker of premium quality footwear for the trail and the cupid to the outdoor world. Oboz love hiking. Welcome to the Rock Fight where we speak our truth, slay sacred cows and sometimes agree to disagree.
This is an outdoor podcast at Aims for the Head.
I'm Colin True and today outdoor industry insider Owen Comerford and I will be checking in on our industry's financial health as we begin month two of the I guess we're calling it the Terrafina Fiasco.
Before we get to that, come back to the Rock Fight this Wednesday where I'll be joined by Shantae Salibair to run through some outdoor adventure headlines and come back to the show this Friday where I'll be joined by Adam Kramer of the CEO of the Outdoor alliance to talk about public lands. And hey, are you heading to Switchback this June?
If so, be sure to put the Rock Fight live on your agenda for Tuesday, June 17th at 5:00 in the Trailheads Theater. I'll be there. Producer Dave will be there. Owen will be there. Shantae will be there.
If Switchback is going to be the event of the summer, this will be the event at the event. Don't miss it. And lastly, be sure to follow and rate both the Rock Fight and Open Container on whatever podcast app you are using right now.
Stick around. We'll be right back.
Chris DeMakes
00:02:12.528 - 00:02:16.580
Welcome to the rock fight. Rock fight. Rock fight.
Colin True
00:02:19.360 - 00:02:32.710
Hey everyone, let's dial things back. It's time for a new segment we're calling Catalog Lullaby. And today we're featuring catalog copy for the Iron PAX Mountain Magic 50 Pro backpack.
Catalog Lullabye!
00:02:33.930 - 00:03:19.040
The ARN Mountain Magic 50 Pro. It is no surprise that this pack is a thru hiker favorite. It weighs just around 1kg.
It weighs just around 1kg and has a free flowing harness system and comfy dual adjustment hip belt. This is your catalog Lullaby. Sweet dreams.
Colin True
00:03:20.110 - 00:03:30.930
Plan to visit ARN at Switchback or GEOA Connect this June. If you can't make it there and you're not too sleepy, head to arnpacks.com and hey, sweet dreams, everyone.
Eoin Comerford
00:03:31.870 - 00:03:32.262
All right.
Colin True
00:03:32.286 - 00:03:46.244
Today's main topic is presented by Garage Growing gear, your hub for ultralight gear. Learn more by heading to garagegrowngear.com producer Dave he's off today. It's just Owen and me and I mentioned it at the top of the show.
Owen, are you excited for our live show at Switchback?
Eoin Comerford
00:03:46.292 - 00:03:59.000
I'm super excited for that. You get to hang out with the whole gang, see some folks in person that I haven't seen in a while. You and Shantae, I thought were amazing.
Colin True
00:04:00.220 - 00:04:00.788
Thanks.
Eoin Comerford
00:04:00.884 - 00:04:22.998
On Wednesday, although I was a little hurt. Yes. So during that show you sort of talked about the lineup for the Rock Fight Adventure race team.
There was a discussion of Dave, a discussion of Justin. My name didn't even come up. I wasn't even considered for.
Colin True
00:04:23.134 - 00:04:24.930
Yeah, we brought Spitzbought in too.
Eoin Comerford
00:04:27.870 - 00:04:40.624
Actually. That probably makes more sense. But. And you're not wrong.
I mean, unless it's like, you know, dog walking that leg, probably I'm not going to be much help. But still, it would have been nice to, you know, consider the oversight.
Colin True
00:04:40.672 - 00:04:46.160
That was, that was a, that was a massive oversight. And I think now we have to do all do an adventure race together and you have to participate.
Eoin Comerford
00:04:46.240 - 00:04:46.880
Absolutely.
Colin True
00:04:46.960 - 00:04:47.536
That has.
Eoin Comerford
00:04:47.608 - 00:04:48.780
Absolutely. That would be great.
Colin True
00:04:49.240 - 00:04:58.780
Yeah. What would, what is your.
So I think when you're on adventure racing team, everyone's like, oh, this person's a navigator and this person's really strong in this event. Like, where do you think your strength would be on an adventure racing team?
Eoin Comerford
00:04:59.080 - 00:05:12.556
Think navigator. Sure. Yeah. Ballast. Like if we're in some sort of boat, I could be the ballast. Yeah, yeah. Tug of war. I can be the anchor.
Colin True
00:05:12.588 - 00:05:25.676
You know, navigation is like still like just, it's like, I don't know, like I can't. It does, I can't make sense of it. My eyes just go, like, blank and I just lose interest altogether.
I'm like, I'll just follow everybody else where they go. I can't.
Eoin Comerford
00:05:25.708 - 00:05:28.972
I can't do it. Orienteering wasn't a big thing for you in Boy Scouts?
Colin True
00:05:29.036 - 00:05:29.500
No.
Eoin Comerford
00:05:29.620 - 00:05:30.092
Okay.
Colin True
00:05:30.156 - 00:05:30.380
No.
Eoin Comerford
00:05:30.420 - 00:05:30.982
All right.
Colin True
00:05:31.116 - 00:05:36.306
Must be. I think it's my undiagnosed ADHD that is messing with my head.
Eoin Comerford
00:05:36.378 - 00:05:42.270
No. I am one of those people where I somehow always know where north is.
Colin True
00:05:43.610 - 00:05:50.418
Awesome. See, you should be on the adventure. Acd. Massive oversight by Shantae. I think I was gonna say your name, but Ashante distracted me.
Eoin Comerford
00:05:50.474 - 00:05:52.834
Totally. It was totally. It was all Shantae's fault. Absolutely.
Colin True
00:05:52.882 - 00:06:42.248
That's her fault.
All right, well, let's try and make sense of what I'm calling the shit tornado that is blowing about right now this week, Owen, you put together a model that demonstrates sort of the impact of the Trump tariffs as well. As we're going to talk about some other news that have come out on that topic.
But first, last week I noticed, owen, over on LinkedIn, someone commented on your beginning of the year top 10 predictions, your predictions for 2025, and they asked if you wanted to provide an update on that list. I thought that was actually interesting, an idea to take a peek at. Maybe it'll set the stage of some of the things we're going to talk about today.
But aside from number 10, which was the rock fight will be the number one news source for the outdoor industry. And I think you can take your victory lap now on one.
Some of those predictions may just be out the window at this point, given the current state of things, but maybe not. So you want to take a. Do you want to take a quick second and run through them?
Eoin Comerford
00:06:42.304 - 00:07:42.970
Sure. So the first one is the one that's probably the most out the window, which is it was that the worst is over mostly.
And basically what the thought was there was we had been obviously through a couple, three maybe tough years in the outdoor industry, over inventoried, et cetera. But really, last year, we worked through a lot of that inventory glut. Feel like we found bottom things were sort of bouncing back overall.
It just felt like that we were coming out of the funk, so to speak. Well, not so fast. And then we have all the tariff shift, all this other stuff going on.
And so I don't think anybody is suggesting this is going to be a bumper year for the outdoor industry. So, you know, absent a miracle, and miracles do happen, I guess absent a miracle, I think that one is probably not going to happen.
The second one was that the pain in bike and kayak will continue. And I think I'm right there.
Colin True
00:07:43.090 - 00:07:46.922
Maybe not for the reasons you were suggesting, but I think you're.
Eoin Comerford
00:07:46.986 - 00:07:47.850
I think I was right.
Colin True
00:07:47.970 - 00:07:49.098
You can throw everybody else in there.
Eoin Comerford
00:07:49.154 - 00:07:50.698
I'm just even righter.
Colin True
00:07:50.874 - 00:07:51.162
So.
Eoin Comerford
00:07:51.186 - 00:08:16.150
Yes, that's right. Yeah, about that. So that's unfortunate. But yes. Third one was that rei's results will show a lot of improvement.
And since writing this, we've heard that apparently they will show improvement.
Although I would note that typically REI publishes their results in sort of mid April and we were recording this on the 2nd of May and so far no results.
Colin True
00:08:17.250 - 00:08:20.030
They're busy squeezing their brands for more exclusives.
Eoin Comerford
00:08:22.210 - 00:09:08.230
So we'll call that one a tbd, but I think it's probably going to be true.
Number four was that Sierra's growth will slow with the thought being that there's just going to be less closeout out there, the glut is past us, et cetera. This one I think is also still tbd, although I think it's kind of right.
They had announced that they were going to add 26 doors last year they ended up only adding 22 and now they've announced that they're slowing a little bit to 20 doors this year. So ish, I guess, is what I would say right now. I think potentially though, if we are facing a recession, they may pull back on that 20.
It'll be interesting to revisit this towards the end of the year and see how many they actually added.
Colin True
00:09:08.770 - 00:09:12.442
All we have left are Sierra and secondhand. That's kind of what's left behind.
Eoin Comerford
00:09:12.546 - 00:09:46.246
Well, because, well, if we do get into a whole recessionary issue, there may be a glut of inventory potentially. We may. On the flip side, we may have shortages. Right. Because people aren't importing products.
So I'm not entirely sure what this all means for them, but I don't think it's necessarily good. But you know, if Sierra's doing well, it probably means that the rest of us aren't doing that hot. So I don't know, we'll see where it all goes then.
I said Colombia was going to launch a major hike centric campaign. I guess not so far.
Colin True
00:09:46.318 - 00:09:47.430
Plenty of time this time.
Eoin Comerford
00:09:47.470 - 00:09:49.606
I mean, it's early. We're not even at.
Colin True
00:09:49.758 - 00:09:51.430
Let's see what they do for fall. Right?
Eoin Comerford
00:09:51.470 - 00:10:36.940
Totally. Well, I would hope that it would be out by the summer, but anyway, I mean, they have this fancy new ad agency that they got from Britain.
You would think that they would do something with that and a fancy new CMO that came from Meta. So yeah. So something should be coming soon.
Hopefully a major brand will introduce a brand marketplace, which is this thing I've been harping on about where brands bring together all of their retailers inventory in one spot. That hasn't happened yet. I still think it is in the cards now. The current turmoil may delay it a year or so.
I still think it's going to happen, but maybe not this year. Number seven was that the Stanley quencher fad will fade. I think I've gotten this one right.
Colin True
00:10:37.400 - 00:10:39.220
Is that the one where they had the recall?
Eoin Comerford
00:10:39.640 - 00:11:14.548
I think they've had various recalls, but yeah, but it's the one that comes out in new colors every month. Yeah, that one. The one where soccer moms were willing to kill each other in a target to get the latest Stanley. So that one is happening.
And in fact, I think I just read an article this week where the CEO of Stanley, whatever it is, Stanley 1913, because you have to differentiate that Stanley. You have to differentiate from the Stanley Tool people.
Colin True
00:11:14.604 - 00:11:15.560
From the tools.
Eoin Comerford
00:11:16.300 - 00:11:55.002
The Stanley Tool people are actually suing the Stanley Quencher people because they're apparently going beyond whatever brand sharing agreement that they have. Anyway, I do think that thing is, you know, the bloom is off the rose.
They're trying to talk about how they're expanding into other categories, yada yada. But the quencher itself I feel like is definitely on the downslope. Number eight was that decreased pre season buys will become the norm.
Really the whole thought process here is that retailers will continue to push risk back onto the brands. I think that will definitely be the case this year. Maybe not entirely for the reasons that I said, but I do think the outcome's the same.
Colin True
00:11:55.106 - 00:11:55.834
You count it as a win.
Eoin Comerford
00:11:55.842 - 00:12:21.820
The win is a win. Uh, number nine.
Another marketplace prediction was that backcountry was going to introduce an outdoor marketplace mainly because they were bought by CSC generation last year who does a lot of these kind of marketplace models. Hasn't happened yet still. There's still time. Uh, I, I think probably CSC maybe had a little bit more triage work to do than they thought going in.
I don't know that for sure.
Colin True
00:12:21.860 - 00:12:22.556
It's been quiet.
Eoin Comerford
00:12:22.668 - 00:12:23.052
Yeah.
Colin True
00:12:23.116 - 00:12:31.896
Yeah. But also noticing more people on LinkedIn who are being hired by backcountry. So perhaps may this is building towards something depending again.
Yeah, the world.
Eoin Comerford
00:12:31.968 - 00:12:42.440
So you know, the world. So. So we shall see. And then number 10 was the rock 5 is going to be the outdoor industry's leading news channel.
And, you know, check, check, check on that one.
Colin True
00:12:42.560 - 00:12:43.384
Box checked.
Eoin Comerford
00:12:43.432 - 00:12:43.944
Yeah.
Colin True
00:12:44.072 - 00:12:44.696
Yep.
Eoin Comerford
00:12:44.808 - 00:12:45.368
Okay.
Colin True
00:12:45.464 - 00:12:46.984
Well, not bad. Not bad.
Eoin Comerford
00:12:47.072 - 00:12:50.472
Yeah, we'll see. We'll.
Colin True
00:12:50.536 - 00:12:55.878
I mean, actually really good if you consider what you. We couldn't anticipate when you made this list.
Eoin Comerford
00:12:56.014 - 00:13:09.702
Yeah. So only one is a definite so far. There may be more. We'll keep you posted as we go here.
And I will bravely throw out another 10 in December of this year. So we'll see how it goes.
Colin True
00:13:09.766 - 00:13:18.998
I think if we've learned anything from our president, that. That first one, you should be able to sue the current Trump administration. You know, you've never had a chance for that first one.
Eoin Comerford
00:13:19.054 - 00:13:20.010
Absolutely.
Colin True
00:13:20.760 - 00:13:22.512
Your reputation has been tarnished.
Eoin Comerford
00:13:22.576 - 00:13:26.560
Right. This has got to be no fault of your own bible or some situation where I can get after this.
Colin True
00:13:26.600 - 00:13:26.752
Right?
Eoin Comerford
00:13:26.776 - 00:13:27.488
Yeah, totally.
Colin True
00:13:27.584 - 00:13:48.078
Yeah, I believe that. All right.
Well, actually, Owen, if you want to get away, if you want to get out of town and away from the insanity of the world, well, then what you should do is check out what's new for May at garage Grown gear. You can check out the Whisper Shelter by gossamer gear. This shelter takes ultralight to a new level.
You know, I feel like ultralight's always being taken to a new level. Is that fair to say?
Eoin Comerford
00:13:48.134 - 00:14:08.798
I think invisible is the new level. So it's. Yeah, so it's going to be okay. Here is this invisible shelter? It isn't there at all. Right. Because it's zero grams.
But you have this thought of a shelter so you feel safer under it. You get wet, but, I mean, you feel safer under that shelter.
Colin True
00:14:08.894 - 00:14:11.774
We've achieved emperor's new clothes for the outdoor industry.
Eoin Comerford
00:14:11.862 - 00:14:13.410
Is that what we're exactly?
Colin True
00:14:14.850 - 00:14:54.304
Well, this shelter by gossamer Gear takes ultralight to a new level, giving you the comfort of a tent with the featherweight feel of a tarp. It has a floorless design with a mesh skirt around the bottom to keep bugs at bay. Plus, it's made with lightweight. Say it with me now, Dyneema.
So it's great at keeping water out. I don't think Owen's seen this copy before. You knew exactly what to say. It's a truly unique design.
So go check it out at GGG, your hub for ultralight backpacking gear. Go to garagegrowngear.com and check it out. We'll be right back. You're listening to Rock Fight Radio.
Rock Fight Radio!
00:14:54.352 - 00:15:22.108
A ball sock for old times. It's no ordinary sock. It does what it says. It does fit our Socks marine. Oh, but they don't fall down. This sock fits better than your sock.
A funky shaped soc that's an elegant solution to budging in the toes, heel slippage and falling down at the ankle. A sock with padded tent knit structures that achieve whole foot comfort that you can really feel like.
Eoin Comerford
00:15:22.164 - 00:15:22.716
Whoa.
Rock Fight Radio!
00:15:22.828 - 00:15:51.732
A sock that acts like a base layer. A sock that's all about the base layer. A thermo regulating moisture wicking, body forming base layer fits as a sock that fits better than your sock.
Maybe even the best sock ever. It really could be fits a bull sock for all times. It's no ordinary sock. It does what it says it does. Fit, fit, fit, fit, fit, fit.
It really could be Fitz layer.
Colin True
00:15:51.796 - 00:16:48.360
Well, you got DJCT right here with you. And that was bolt sock, the first big hit we ever had from Fitz.
Fitz has been knitting the hits since 2014 with their patented whole foot comfort approach to making fine gauge merino performance socks. They make some of the best basics in the biz. Retailers make sure to stop by and say hi at Goa Connect this June.
It will be sure to put a smile on your toes. And now back to the show.
All right, so a couple of weeks ago, Dave and I talked about the first signs of the impacts of the new tariffs, specifically talking about passengers decision deposits, North American expansion plans. But over this past week we've started to hear more about the impact that many are already feeling.
So Owen, before we get into some specifics here, you built a model last week that I think really demonstrates what we're dealing with.
And I think it helps paint a picture for someone who, you know, understands that tariffs are impactful and not great, but maybe don't quite understand like what's possible in a bad way in this current situation. So can you walk us through what you created here?
Eoin Comerford
00:16:48.480 - 00:19:40.522
Sure.
So I wanted to create this fictional company and a P and L A profit and loss statement for this fictional company and see how it could react to 145% tariffs. How do you absorb that? What does it look like in actual numbers? And so this fictional company, it does seven and a half million dollars a year.
So it's sort of a small to mid size company and it's selling $100 camping stoves. It does 50,000 units through wholesale, 50,000 through D2C. Okay.
And in every case that we're going through, they actually, they have to slash expenses. Right.
Because that's the first thing that everyone's doing, quite frankly right now, especially if you're sourcing out of China, you're slashing expenses, you're cutting your marketing, unfortunately, you're laying people off, you're cutting contractors, you're doing whatever you can to cut those expenses. Okay? So all of these basically take expenses which are $4 million down to $3.2 million. Okay?
So in our pre, pre tariff world, okay, the landed cost of the product is $30. We've got a 40% wholesale margin, we've got a 50% retail margin. So it sells for 100 bucks.
And then all those numbers, we end up with making 500k, which is enough to kind of keep things rolling, which is not bad. So I wanted to look at just these different options.
So the first option that a lot of brands first thought about is say, hey, listen, you know what, what I'm going to do is the 145% tariffs, which is about $42. Okay? I'm just going to pass that through.
So in other words, I'm going to just increase my retail by the $42, I'm going to 100, 140, and that's all I'm going to do. Okay? And you might think, well, that's reasonable. Your cost went up by that, that's fine.
The problem with that is just doing that increases your retail costs by 42%. Okay? So consumers are not going to love a 42% increase, okay? It's just not good.
Plus, what happens from the retailer's perspective is now the margins for the retailer go down. They go from 50% to 35% plus your wholesale margins go down too.
So the retailers are going to hate that, especially if they can go get a stove from somebody else where they're still making 50 points of margin. You're toast. Okay? Plus, they know that their consumers aren't going to love a 42% price increase, so they slash their orders by like 80%.
You know, D2C, you don't get hurt as, as bad, but your, your orders are way down to net, net overall volume just absolutely implodes and you end up losing 700k.
Colin True
00:19:40.706 - 00:19:59.622
So, so that you, you also lose in the long run because not only does it, you know, this hurts now in the immediate term of like, you know, you're, you're going to lose this money, but now also your, your partners are going to look at you and be like, hey, thanks for sharing some of the burden. Just like putting it all on us to pay for your problem.
You know, like, we're not, we're not sure I want to do business with you next year when maybe all of this is resolved.
Eoin Comerford
00:19:59.686 - 00:21:17.682
Right? Because it's not like, it's not like retailers are rolling in profitability right now. Right.
You know, so, so, so that, yeah, they're not going to love. Because, you know, they have to invest in inventory and then get a return on that inventory investment.
And so if you're saying, hey, it used to be a 50% return, now it's 35%, they're going to go, no, no, thank you. Okay, so that's option one. So option two was, hey, you know what, we're going to protect that retailer margin. So that 50% margin, that's sacrosanct.
We're going to take, yes, we'll take the hit on the wholesale margin, but the retail margin will still be 50%. The problem with that is now that $42 price increases now $84. Okay, so in other words, your $100 item is now $184. It's gone up 84%.
So the consumers are like, it's the same effing stove. Why do you want me to pay almost double for this thing? So basically your wholesale volume still craters your DTC volume craters your overall volume.
You're down 65% and at the end of the day you're netting you lose $1.1 million. So disaster. Right? Yeah.
Colin True
00:21:17.826 - 00:21:18.562
Not sustainable.
Eoin Comerford
00:21:18.626 - 00:22:00.152
Now let's just take it to the crazy, crazy, which is, hey, we're going to actually maintain both margins. We're going to maintain our wholesale margin, we're going to maintain our retail margin. So 40% of each.
Well then basically you're just compounding the price increase. So now that $100 stove is $240. Same exact stove. $240. So the consumers are like, no, no, no, just no way. Right.
So basically again, in this case, volume just absolutely tanks. So you're down 80%. Nobody's buying this thing. Right. It's crazy. And so again, you lose a million dollars.
Colin True
00:22:00.296 - 00:22:15.748
So in each of these scenarios, basically the companies are roughly a million dollar loss, whether three quarters of a million to a million dollars. And you're saying that if we're starting with a company that's in that million range, I mean, that's, you're done, right?
You're just, you're out of business pretty much. You can't sustain that. You can't lose that much money.
Eoin Comerford
00:22:15.804 - 00:22:39.436
Yeah, no, absolutely not. I mean, you would have banking covenants that you're booting.
They're going to probably pull your line of credit if you somehow manage to have that much cash on hand, which I don't know. Show me a small to medium sized outdoor company that has, you know, just flush, that's flush with cash. Right, right. I've yet to meet one.
Maybe there's one out there who knows.
Colin True
00:22:39.628 - 00:22:41.372
They don't apply in this scenario.
Eoin Comerford
00:22:41.436 - 00:22:53.948
No, it just doesn't work. So what probably happens though in that scenario is they slash even further. Right. So it isn't a 20% cut to expenses. It's a.
I mean you would have to basically cut.
Colin True
00:22:54.004 - 00:23:00.444
Yeah, they shrink because they have money. They don't. They're not worried about making money as much like, okay, let's just shrink down to where we can be whatever, try to survive.
Eoin Comerford
00:23:00.492 - 00:23:12.916
Right. So in that scenario you're slashing your expenses not by 20%, but like 50%.
So you basically like lay off everybody except the founder and you know, a salesperson and you know, bunker mentality.
Colin True
00:23:12.948 - 00:23:23.380
It's kind of what Passenger did in a way. I mean, a little different because it was an expansion plan. But ultimately they're like, okay, we're not going to afford this.
We're going to like support our other. Where we are and, and pause this for now.
Eoin Comerford
00:23:23.420 - 00:24:24.024
Sure, absolutely. Yeah, yeah.
And I did actually another LinkedIn post on that whole piece, which is, I think what we're going to see is for companies that, that are sort of stuck with Chinese production, it's going to get dumped elsewhere. It's being diverted. Colombia just came out and said they're diverting their Chinese inventory. Same thing with Kathmandu, said the same thing as well.
And where are they diverting it? Mainly to Europe because Europe is the market that is the most similar to the US in terms of its likes, the spending fit.
Because especially if you're in apparel, the fit isn't going to work in Asia. I mean, even if they're, even if you had a good market in Asia, it's just not going to work.
So if this product has already been produced, it's headed to Europe and it's not like Europe is dying for more inventory. So I think that's going to be really, really tough here potentially for the European market.
Colin True
00:24:24.112 - 00:24:24.728
Another problem.
Eoin Comerford
00:24:24.784 - 00:24:25.700
Right. All right.
Colin True
00:24:26.000 - 00:24:37.348
Yeah. So not sustainable. Maybe it gets you through right now, but not a sustainable option. You're still going to have to.
For the long term, either something's going to have to change or you're going to have to move manufacturing to a different location or what it is.
Eoin Comerford
00:24:37.404 - 00:25:38.670
Yeah. And likely what happens is you can't afford to lose 500k so you just Slash even further from expenses.
So things like, oh, our head of product development, you know, what do we need to develop product for the future? Absolutely. Can we afford that person right now? No. Right.
I mean those are the kinds of decisions that companies are having to make right now are those sorts of scenarios where it's like, yeah, we just, we can't afford these people or you know, we've got a rock star person in marketing.
But yeah, no, we're going to, sorry, we get, we're, we're going to go to a fractional cmo, we're going to bring in, you know, some contractor or something. It, it's going to be those sorts of issues.
We're going to, hey, you know, we love getting together in the office but we can't afford to have a building anymore. We're going to go fully remote.
I mean, right, that's what we're talking about in terms of just businesses making really, really tough, quite frankly, very short term, short sighted decisions to try and stay in business.
Colin True
00:25:39.610 - 00:26:09.662
Well, that's it. Because you're trying to stay in business. And I imagine this sort of shared cost is probably what's happening.
I was sent a couple of emails this week from some brands I don't want to name but also like, hey, we are asking you to absorb this cost. We will be absorbing this cost in terms of the manufacturing we'll be doing. We've asked our factory to absorb this cost. Right.
So I think that probably what I'm imagining, I would imagine most are settling on is that kind of a little bit dulled across everybody model. But I would imagine most people are doing.
Eoin Comerford
00:26:09.766 - 00:26:41.200
Yeah. And that, that is my advice to a lot of the companies that I work with is total transparency with, with your, with, with your consumers.
Because I think they know that things are happening and what's going on and they realize how potentially this is an existential crisis for a brand that they hopefully love and that they're willing to step up and see that this isn't some kind of price gouging or whatever else that truly this is like we need to raise prices just to stay in business.
Colin True
00:26:41.980 - 00:28:04.922
Well, good segue into the next thing we wanted to talk about because it's been a bit of a crazy week. A lot of reports coming out of all sectors too by the way. This isn't just an outdoor industry problem.
Clearly there's been brands like Hershey's, McDonald's, Chipotle, Harley Davidson, all reported customer spending slowdowns. And then we saw, if you pay attention to the trades.
This week, outdoor brands have posted statements about their current position, like Cot, Epoxy, Wild Rye, Rhone Hydro Flask and Osprey sending letters to customers warning them to expect higher prices. All the things we've been alluding to in this part of the conversation.
Meanwhile, Colombia reported during their earnings call that there were risks coming up, but they're still expecting to grow in the second quarter, which obviously pre some of the stuff going into place. But if they're worried, they're not mentioning it too loudly.
And then Newell on their earnings call said they believe they can withstand the worst of the tariffs, possibly even benefit from them.
And then lastly from this past week, there were some signs that maybe there's some cracks in the foundation when the US Senate held a vote to rebuke tariff policies with one of the co sponsors of the resolution being the devil himself, Rand Paul. And that resolution lost, but it easily. Because it passed. It could have passed. It was 49 to 49. There were some people who weren't there.
I mean, look, it's, it doesn't diminish the stupidity of the situation we're in, but at least it's starting to see, like, well, maybe we, you start to see the roadmap to how we get out of it. I mean, where do you think all this puts us in the coming weeks.
Eoin Comerford
00:28:04.946 - 00:28:43.388
And months while the vote was close?
I think people need to understand that even if it had passed, it then would have to overcome a presidential veto, which would require two thirds of the Senate. And unless there's a major upheaval within the Republican Party, I just don't see that happening.
Absent totally plummeting public, public sentiment or a blue wave in the, in the midterms. I, I just, I don't see that, that happening with this current.
Colin True
00:28:43.524 - 00:28:45.292
I'm looking for signs of hope, Owen.
Eoin Comerford
00:28:45.356 - 00:28:47.960
There's no hope, Colin. There's no hope.
Colin True
00:28:49.780 - 00:29:02.380
Well, and I think you're, I think we will see the, the blue wave in the midterms, but also that's, you know, what, 15 months away, 16 months away. So I'm a little, I'm trying to look for something right now, but. But, yeah, you're not wrong.
Eoin Comerford
00:29:02.460 - 00:29:22.432
Well, it's just like you were saying earlier in the, in the show where, you know, it's, we're recording the show on the 2nd of May, and so it's been 30 days since Liberation Day. Oh, my God, it feels like a million years. It is.
Colin True
00:29:22.616 - 00:29:29.020
Remember when everyone was complaining about 2024, what a terrible year it was? Boy, man. Remember the halcyon days of 2020.
Eoin Comerford
00:29:30.760 - 00:30:23.760
I mean, I know the founders that I'm working with. Those 30 days feel like 30 years.
I mean, I don't know that people understand how hard it is to be a founder, to be an entrepreneur, to build something. And there's never enough hours in the day, right? There's so many taxes on your time from people, from customers, from vendors, from all the things.
And then all this and it becomes all consuming and all those other things that need to happen, the branding campaign, the next, the product development cycle, supporting your employees and helping them to develop, all that shit just goes on the back burner and it just, it just piles on. It's. This has been really, really tough.
Colin True
00:30:25.060 - 00:31:37.188
I don't claim to understand a consumer goods focused company and what they're going through, but listen, rockfight's a startup. You know, I fit in that mold of how many emails do you get from me very early in the morning, my time, and probably late at night my time. Right.
I mean, this is what we're doing. And we have lost revenue already because. Because of what you just described.
People slashing their marketing budgets and advertising spend that they thought they were going to have, they do not have. And you know, you have to figure it out. We have to figure it out. It's a different thing to figure out.
Not quite as dire, but it still wasn't in the cards. When you're kind of projecting out what the year is going to be and what we want to do and it is that, that the unknown, that's the worst, you know?
God, Covid felt like the hardest part of COVID was the unknown. But also, boy, wouldn't you trade this for Covid again, You know, she's like, can you believe I even just said those fucking words?
I mean, but it's true. Like, at least it was like, okay, you start to. Pretty quickly. You start to see the path through, right?
You see the trends emerge and we obviously mistakes were made, whatever. But this is just to your point, what do you do? You just laid out a bunch of scenarios for people and. Okay, well, pick the one that you want to do.
What? Go for it. Good luck. Fingers crossed. That's really the, that's the strategy right now.
Eoin Comerford
00:31:37.244 - 00:31:40.486
Yeah. Well, in fairness, people aren't dying. So let's, let's.
Colin True
00:31:40.668 - 00:31:42.590
Okay, fair enough. Yet.
Eoin Comerford
00:31:43.130 - 00:31:45.990
So let's, you know, let's take a, take a breath.
Colin True
00:31:46.810 - 00:31:49.986
Sorry. Good point. Thank you. Very good. Back to reality.
Eoin Comerford
00:31:50.018 - 00:33:13.354
But the circumstances, the circumstances are very tough just because of the level of uncertainty. Absolutely. Yeah, it's tough. And hopefully things will start to resolve. We'll say in the coming, you know, 60 days, right.
We've got obviously the, our 90 day window that's going to be up here in about, in about two months. You know, I think we will see some. I mean, the administration is hungry to trumpet some wins. Right.
And so basically, so even if the winds are very, very symbolic at best, they'll be blowing up to massive proportions like, oh, my gosh, Vietnam just opened its auto market to US Vehicles. This is amazing. It's been a closed market. It's just going to be the biggest thing in the world.
Well, of course, the reality is nobody in Vietnam is ever going to want to drive a U.S. car. It's not that we don't make nice cars here. We make cars for America. We don't make cars for Vietnam.
I mean, a lot of, a lot of scooters basically in Vietnam that you don't make here. And B, you know, the roads just don't work for the size of vehicle and the gas goes.
00:33:13.482 - 00:33:15.830
Not a lot of Nissan Armadas driving around.
Eoin Comerford
00:33:16.130 - 00:33:19.270
No. Or F150s or. Yeah, right.
Colin True
00:33:19.810 - 00:33:22.634
Or Ford Explorers or Ford Expeditions or whatever.
Eoin Comerford
00:33:22.682 - 00:33:48.326
Kind of like Escalades. No, not so much.
So I think we'll see a lot of that kind of bullshit where it sounds like, oh, we've made all of this progress to open up these markets and it's all hand waving and jazz hands, but, hey, whatever it takes for this administration to declare victory and return to some degree of sanity, I think, okay, fine.
Colin True
00:33:48.518 - 00:34:03.420
But is it fair to say, though, that even if that were, let's say it's a few weeks from now and we declare some success, there's still damage that has been done. Right. I mean, there's going to be people who may not recover from this, even if that is the case, wouldn't you think?
Eoin Comerford
00:34:03.880 - 00:36:32.968
I think we have 60 days. I do. Because.
Well, the good news is that this did happen sort of in an ordering lull for the outdoor industry a little bit between the sort of spring, summer stuff that came in before April, and then the fall winter stuff that kind of will come in more in July through September. And for smaller brands, it's more like August. September. So I think there's a little bit of time.
So most of the inventory that's on hand right now didn't have these tariffs. They still had tariffs. Apparel and footwear actually is some of the most tariffed stuff that's out there already. Right, right. Yeah.
So I think from that Perspective, it really comes down to how long can these companies hold off on taking the goods, because in a lot of cases, the stuff's already been manufactured or is being manufactured. Certainly if you're an apparel brand, for example, you already have your grayish, you already have all your trims and all that stuff's done.
So it's really a matter of how long can we delay to bring in the new stuff, because we can't afford to bring in the new stuff. I think we've shown we really can't afford to bring, bring it in under 145% tariff.
Now, if it's a 30% tariff, if it's a, you know, it's hard again, it's crazy how the actions of this administration have just sort of reset the mental model around what is normal and acceptable around a tariff level. Right. Because when you've been staring down 145%, if it drops magically to 45%, you're like, oh, God, thank God for that. Wow. Thank God it's 45%.
45%, by the way. Still could put companies out of business. I mean, just let's be clear here. But at least it might take a little longer.
There's more time to sort of figure things out in terms of moving supply chains, et cetera. I mean, the other crazy thing about this whole process is just how quickly. Right.
Usually tariffs are phased in over months and years, potentially to give supply chains chances to react and to avoid disruptions and shortages and all that. That's not happening here, right? Yeah.
Colin True
00:36:32.984 - 00:36:43.816
They said typically it's like 18 months to negotiate a trade deal and then 45 months to implement them once they're passed. And they're trying to do everything in 60 days or 90 days, whatever the extension was. 90 days.
Eoin Comerford
00:36:43.888 - 00:37:15.604
Yeah. So it's crazy, but I do think that we'll see some relief on the reciprocal tariffs to a lot of the bigger players. And probably the biggest linchpin.
Right. Is Vietnam, given how much volume moved there from China over the last five or six years. And all indications are that there'll be a deal there. Right.
And so I think that's good news. But the problem is that there are brands that are stuck in China and that they're 100% in China and there's just not enough time to get out.
Colin True
00:37:15.772 - 00:37:54.800
Well, we'll continue to talk about as things come up, like we don't want us to become just the dominant every episode topic here on the Rock Fight, but I will say call your congressperson. I think Especially if maybe you're living in a red district.
I think that might have be, you know, I live in Southern California, so any phone call I make seem like, yeah, we agree, you know, so it's a little. But if you're in an area where, you know, maybe the pressure will mount and be helpful.
It is the single best thing I think anybody can do right now is put pressure on Congress because they're the ones who actually the system set up that they could change this right now if they really, really wanted to. If they, if they really kind of wanted to see it. The system exists for them to make a difference, but it's just not likely.
Eoin Comerford
00:37:54.920 - 00:37:58.240
Well, legally, Congress is the group that sets tax.
Colin True
00:37:58.280 - 00:37:58.900
Yes.
Eoin Comerford
00:37:59.400 - 00:38:08.528
It's not the president. The president only has that power under emergency situations. And that's the issue is that.
Colin True
00:38:08.584 - 00:38:10.240
And he's created an emergency.
Eoin Comerford
00:38:10.400 - 00:38:24.340
Right. It's a fake emergency, Right, Exactly. The trade deficit is an emergency. Right.
Well, okay, we've had a growing trade deficit for, I don't know, two decades. How is that an emergency? But okay.
Colin True
00:38:26.820 - 00:39:34.120
Alright folks, time to set the record straight. A few weeks back, listeners heard me rant on about a new sandal from Lem's shoes.
That sandal, the new Switchback sandal, was a classic single strap, single post style that I, without much knowledge, accused of being just like someone else. What I wasn't informed on was Lem's unique take on making footwear. And let's just say a few rocks were thrown back at me.
And rightly so, because Lem's has really ill elevated the design of minimalist natural movement footwear, anatomically correct zero drop comfort and lightweight outdoor performance.
And the Switchback, it's crafted from a single piece of material and features a unique single strap design with one buckle for super ease of use, added comfort and getting it on outside. You can go get yourself a pair right now@lemshoes.com where you'll also find that Lem's is running a 20% off sale from now until May 11th.
Oh, and hey retailers, did you know that Lemz is looking for wholesale partners? Hit them up@supportemshoes.com to add a little flavor to your shoe wall.
And be sure to stop by and say hi to the Lemz team at their booth at Switchback in Nashville this June. Check out the new Switchback sandal and all of Lem's shoes by heading over to Lemsshoes.com.
Chris DeMakes
00:39:36.100 - 00:39:38.480
It'S time for a party shot.
Colin True
00:39:40.260 - 00:40:08.728
All right. Time for the parting Shot. And, you know, we had a couple things on the docket today that that could have been very traditional.
Rock fight, parting shot. After that half hour plus of. I'm feeling a little. I'm feeling a little low right now, Owen. So let's.
For the parting shot today, we're taking a shot at sort of the gloom and doom in the world and we're remind ourselves of why we're in the outdoor industry and the stuff that we like to do. So it's not really a shot, but so much as a. What's going on this weekend, Owen? What are you getting outside? You're going to go do something fun?
Eoin Comerford
00:40:08.864 - 00:40:17.582
Yeah. So I don't know if we've shared this on the pod, but moved to a lake. Lake late last year, so.
Colin True
00:40:17.686 - 00:40:18.570
Right on.
Eoin Comerford
00:40:19.110 - 00:40:38.702
So just beautiful. Just love. I've always loved water, but living on water is amazing. But as part of that, we're becoming boaters. Okay. And so we're getting ready for.
We got the dock in and the new pontoon shows up next week, so we're very excited about it.
Colin True
00:40:38.726 - 00:40:39.086
Excellent.
Eoin Comerford
00:40:39.118 - 00:40:52.724
Yeah, excellent. So I got to learn how to drive this because apparently it's not just like driving a car because it doesn't have brakes.
It can go in reverse, but, like, there's drifting and there's all kinds of stuff. So anyway, so you did know that.
Colin True
00:40:52.732 - 00:40:54.436
A boat doesn't typically have brakes, right?
Eoin Comerford
00:40:54.508 - 00:40:56.360
Oh, I knew that, Colin.
Colin True
00:40:56.700 - 00:40:58.244
It's not for me that you knew.
Eoin Comerford
00:40:58.292 - 00:41:47.622
No, I knew that. I did know that. Okay, good. I knew enough to know that I didn't know.
So anyway, so I've got plenty of friends that are boaters that are going to kind of help. But yeah, so that's exciting. And then also, I'm a big. So I'm a big DIY guy. Guy. Like I, you know, like to, to the point where I drive my wife crazy.
Or actually, if. If my wife really wants something done around the house, what she says is, oh, you know what? I think I'm going to hire somebody to do the Bubba. Duh.
I'm like, you're not going to hire someone to do that. I mean, I could do that. I can say, come on, you know? Yeah, so. So, yeah, so, yeah, so a big DIY guy.
So I'm, I'm building this a, A, A large deck on the, you know, so overlooking the, the where I can sit and have a glass of wine and stare at the pontoon lovingly.
Colin True
00:41:47.766 - 00:41:49.926
Look at the pontoon boat that doesn't have brakes.
Eoin Comerford
00:41:50.038 - 00:41:52.570
It doesn't now the calipers are bad, apparently.
Colin True
00:41:53.630 - 00:42:02.118
I'd like to point out that point two on your predictions were the pain in the bike in the kayak industries. Why don't you buy some kayaks and help them out, man? You know, so.
Eoin Comerford
00:42:02.254 - 00:42:15.824
So we are going to get kayaks. Okay, good. Although actually we're currently borrowing my sister's kayaks because she bought them during COVID and hasn't used them in three years.
And so, yeah, sure, yeah, they don't.
Colin True
00:42:15.832 - 00:42:18.592
Need to buy kayaks. Just keep those. You're the one with the lake house.
Eoin Comerford
00:42:18.696 - 00:42:27.980
Exactly. We said, hey, you can come over anytime and kayak. Yeah. And use your own kayaks. Yes. What about you? What have you got going on?
Colin True
00:42:28.360 - 00:43:10.352
A little bit of a little potpourri, little mishmash. We're surfing probably this weekend. The swell might be a little big, a little above my pay grade, but I still want to try and get in the water.
I got a hockey game Saturday night, so that's not really outdoorsy, but, you know, 11:30pm beer league game, which is, you know, know, this is like a. Just classic start time for. For a hockey game and probably going to get on the bike at least once, if not twice. So, yeah, the. The.
The fresh air, even just getting out for a walk, frankly, just to take a break and get some fresh air and just sort of for a minute, either pop in a podcast or listen to music or nothing even just has been, I think, absolutely crucial as we kind of are rolling through, like we said earlier, the world right now.
Eoin Comerford
00:43:10.536 - 00:43:21.428
So, speaking of, of gnarly surfing, so have you ever, like, had a. Had a, A, like, scary surfing moment where you were, like, down? You're like, oh, I don't know if I'm gonna pop up here in this deal.
Colin True
00:43:21.484 - 00:43:25.360
Oh, no, no, I'm not that good. I don't go in water. I don't go into the waves when they're that big.
Eoin Comerford
00:43:26.140 - 00:43:26.596
Okay.
Colin True
00:43:26.628 - 00:43:30.400
Yeah, I'm like, for two to three feet. Like, I better stay home.
Eoin Comerford
00:43:30.860 - 00:43:33.800
Okay. All right. Okay, gotcha.
Colin True
00:43:34.380 - 00:44:04.700
Well, let's wrap it up there. Come back on Wednesday and Friday this week for more from the Rock Fight combat. Come back on Tuesday for the new episode of Open Container.
Rock Fight's a production of Rock Fight llc. Owen and I produced this episode. We don't need Producer Dave Art direction was still provided by Sarah Gensert, who's indispensable around here.
And for Owen Cumberford, I'm Colin True. Thanks for listening. And Chris Demaikz. He's back. He's not charging us tariffs yet. I hope he doesn't. To sing the Rock Fight Fight song.
We'll see you next time, Rock fighters.
Chris DeMakes
00:44:04.780 - 00:45:07.790
Rock fight. Rock fight. Rock fight. Rock fight. Rock fight, Rock fight? Welcome to the rock fight? Where we speak our truth?
Slay sacred cows and sometimes agree to disagree? We talk about human powered outdoor activities and pig bites about topics that we find interesting like pop culture music, the latest movie reviews?
Ideas that aim for the head? This is where we speak our truth? This is where we speak our truth? Rock fight. Rock flight, Rock flight? Welcome to the rock flight?
Rock flight, Rock flight? Welcome to the rock flight? Rock flight? Rock fight? Rock flight, Rock flight, Rock flight? Welcome to the rock flight? Rock flight? Rapid.
